Right now final week, the Seattle Seahawks have been alone atop the NFC West at 4-3.
However by Sunday evening, they may discover themselves in final place. A loss to the Los Angeles Rams at Lumen Discipline would guarantee as a lot no matter whether or not the Arizona Cardinals win or lose on the highway towards the Chicago Bears.
Such is life within the NFL’s tightest division.
Getting into Week 9, the Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers and Seahawks are all tied at 4-4, and the Rams are simply half a sport behind at 3-4. Arizona holds the tiebreaker by advantage of its 2-0 begin in NFC West play. The Rams-Seahawks sport on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox) is the primary of eight NFC West matchups to shut the season.
Elsewhere within the NFC, the hole between first and final place is 3½ video games within the East, two within the North and 4 within the South. The highest and backside spots in all 4 AFC divisions are separated by 3 to 5½ video games.
Why is the NFC West nearer than the others? Among the many causes, the 49ers — a Tremendous Bowl favourite to begin the season — have been tormented by accidents, and the Cardinals have kicked three game-winning area targets.
Here is a breakdown of the place issues stand with the Seahawks, 49ers, Rams and Cardinals, plus how the NFC West may be received. — Brady Henderson
FPI’s total rating: No. 21Chances to win division: 32.9percentChances to make the playoffs: 38.2percentNext 5 video games: vs. Chicago Bears, vs. New York Jets, BYE, at Seattle, at Minnesota Vikings
Assess the quarterback: Kyler Murray is enjoying among the finest soccer of his profession — rating third within the NFL in QBR (74.4) — due to an intimate understanding of the Cardinals’ scheme, a clear invoice of well being and each a comfortability and happiness with the coaches and gamers round him. Now in Yr 6, he has confronted a majority of what defenses are throwing at him.
Cardinals’ X issue: WR Marvin Harrison Jr. When the fourth total decide will get going, he — as the youngsters say — eats. Harrison, who had 26 catches for 411 yards and 5 touchdowns, has the aptitude to make any contact right into a scoring play and alter the path of a sport. His third-quarter landing towards the Dolphins in Week 8 catalyzed Arizona’s ultimate two scoring drives within the victory. When he can string collectively a sequence of catches, it opens up the offense for everybody else.
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Greatest concern going ahead: Consistency. The Cardinals have discovered a little bit of a rhythm with back-to-back wins for the primary time since 2021. Arizona wants to repair some persistent points — for instance, enhancing their third-down protection, which ranks final within the NFL — or it will likely be liable to getting handed within the division.
Motive for optimism: When the Cardinals’ offense is clicking, it is nearly as good as any offense within the NFL. It could deploy a mixture of run — between James Conner and Murray — and go that retains a protection on its toes due to the unknown, particularly whether or not Murray will run or throw. Arizona has proven the power to attain factors shortly or eat the clock with an offense that may do all of it from each angle.
Greatest divisional sport left on schedule: There are actually two. The primary is Week 12 at Seattle as a result of that is the subsequent one and with the division so shut proper now, that sport can add some separation within the tiebreakers with wins over all three of their NFC West rivals. However a very powerful one very properly would possibly find yourself being the final sport of the season, when the 49ers go to the Cardinals. The division may come all the way down to that.
Key participant anticipated again from harm: Rookie defensive lineman Darius Robinson. The second of Arizona’s two first-round picks is predicted again within the subsequent week or two from a calf harm that has sidelined him this season. His presence will give the Cardinals an immediate enhance on a defensive entrance that has been hampered by accidents, particularly at edge rush, which is down two of its high three choices. — Josh Weinfuss
FPI’s total rating: No. 18Chances to win division: 15.5percentChances to make the playoffs: 19.5percentNext 5 video games: at Seattle, vs. Miami Dolphins, at New England Patriots, vs. Philadelphia Eagles, at New Orleans Saints
Assess the quarterback: The Rams really feel nice about quarterback Matthew Stafford, who had his finest sport of the season Thursday evening when he had each Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for a complete sport. In that sport, he threw extra landing passes (4) than he had within the first six video games of the season (three).
Rams’ X issue: Nacua. There is not any doubt the Rams missed Nacua for the five-plus video games he was on IR due to a proper knee harm. The receiver had his eighth sport with 100 receiving yards Thursday in his nineteenth profession sport, in keeping with ESPN Analysis. And he did that regardless of catching only a few from Stafford main as much as the sport due to the quick week.
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Greatest concern going ahead: The secondary. The Rams have seen enchancment on this space this season, particularly because the return of cornerback Darious Williams, nevertheless it may be the weakest place group on the sector. Los Angeles has a younger protection and hasn’t had an elite participant within the secondary since buying and selling Jalen Ramsey in March 2023.
Motive for optimism: Week 8 win towards the Minnesota Vikings. The Rams obtained a glimpse of what they hoped this offense would appear like earlier than they have been hit by accidents, scoring a season-high 30 factors towards a crew ranked first in defensive DVOA. Los Angeles had a gradual begin to the season however is wholesome in time to be within the playoff dialog.
Greatest divisional sport left on schedule: Week 17 vs. Cardinals. There is not any unhealthy decide of the remaining 4 divisional video games, however beating Arizona is essential as a result of they’ve already misplaced to them this season. Arizona beat Los Angeles 41-10 in Week 3, a sport through which Stafford took 9 hits and 5 sacks, and Kyren Williams was held to 25 yards on 12 carries.
Key participant anticipated again from harm: OL Steve Avila. The Rams have been hit exhausting on the offensive line, together with Avila, who’s on IR due to an MCL sprain. When Avila and Jonah Jackson return, the Rams ought to have the vast majority of their most well-liked beginning offense again. The road has regarded higher of late, however there isn’t any doubt Avila’s and Jackson’s return will probably be a lift. — Sarah Barshop
FPI’s total rating: No. 6Chances to win division: 37.8percentChances to make the playoffs: 44.2percentNext 5 video games: BYE, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Seattle, at Inexperienced Bay Packers, at Buffalo Payments
Assess the quarterback: For essentially the most half, Brock Purdy has performed properly this season, however a rash of accidents on the talent positions mixed with altering defensive sport plans has made life tougher for the offense. It has led to Purdy holding on to the ball longer, being compelled to scramble extra typically and a lower in yards after the catch. Purdy continues to be rolling towards a large contract extension within the offseason, although the worth tag would possibly depend upon how he closes out the 12 months.
49ers’ X issue: LB Dre Greenlaw. Except for the Herculean efforts of Fred Warner, the Niners have merely not been ok at linebacker. Greenlaw is working his approach again from a torn Achilles and it appears unlikely he’ll be at full energy this season. However San Francisco hopes he can return within the coming weeks and be an improve over the others who’ve stuffed in for him. Even at 80-85%, Greenlaw would assist this protection considerably.
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Greatest concern going ahead: Particular groups. In 4 losses, the 49ers have been outscored by a median of 5 factors per sport and three of these defeats have been by six factors or fewer. The margin for error is slimmer for this crew than it has been previously, which is why an enormous particular groups play or two can imply the distinction between profitable and shedding. By Week 8, San Francisco ranks thirty first within the NFL in particular groups anticipated factors added (minus-17.89).
Motive for optimism: It is clearly not the popular technique of attending to the postseason, however this is not the primary time the Niners have began gradual and gone on a run. Since Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017, the 49ers are a mixed 39-22 in November, December and January, a 63.9% win share that ranks third within the NFL in that span. Most not too long ago, they stormed again from a 3-5 begin in 2021 to complete 10-7 and a 3-4 begin that led to a 13-4 file in 2022. Each groups made the NFC Championship Sport. It additionally does not harm that the NFC West is broad open.
Greatest divisional sport left on schedule: Week 17 at Arizona. As a result of the 49ers blew double-digit leads towards the Rams and Cardinals, each divisional sport the remainder of the way in which carries extra weight than normal. However we’ll go for the season-ender within the desert based mostly on the premise that this division is so up within the air that it very properly may come all the way down to the final week. The 49ers additionally certainly would not thoughts a measure of revenge for the walk-off loss to Arizona in Week 5.
Key participant anticipated again from harm: RB Christian McCaffrey. Candidly, the 49ers’ season would possibly depend upon not solely McCaffrey’s return but in addition his capability to be at or close to his normal, prodigious ranges of productiveness. They’re aiming for a Nov. 10 return towards Tampa Bay. If that occurs, the offense has an opportunity to take off and carry this crew to competition. — Nick Wagoner
FPI’s total rating: No. 24Chances to win division: 13.8percentChances to make the playoffs: 17.7percentNext 5 video games: vs. Rams, BYE, at San Francisco, vs. Arizona, at Jets
Assess the quarterback: Geno Smith has been strong, however the Seahawks have wanted him to be spectacular given all of their shortcomings. Typically chasing huge deficits and having no run sport to lean on, Smith (14th in QBR) leads the NFL in makes an attempt (308) and yards (2,197) however has eight TD passes in comparison with seven interceptions, with robust luck concerned in a number of of the picks.
Seahawks’ X issue: Kenneth Walker III. The Seahawks’ RB1 is tied for fourth with seven touchdowns from scrimmage though he sat out two video games. Walker is a difference-maker, however the Seahawks have not concerned him sufficient. They’re final within the NFL in designed rush charge partly as a result of they’ve deserted the run in a number of video games whereas enjoying from behind.
Greatest concern going ahead: The run protection is a multitude. The Seahawks are giving up the fourth-most dashing yards per sport (148.4) and the fifth-highest yards-per-carry common (4.9). It has remained a weak point whilst Seattle’s protection has improved its well being up entrance. Coach Mike Macdonald has recognized it as a second-level problem, which helps clarify why they traded for linebacker Ernest Jones IV.
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Motive for optimism: Jones, acquired from the Tennessee Titans for Jerome Baker and a fourth-round decide, ought to assist Seattle’s run protection. He is often known as a powerful run defender and performs with an aggressive, downhill model that the Seahawks weren’t getting from Baker. Their run protection wasn’t significantly better in Jones’ debut, although he had 15 tackles after training together with his new crew twice.
Greatest divisional sport left on schedule: Week 11 at 49ers. All the video games look huge given the tightly packed standings, however none are greater than the rematch with the 49ers. San Francisco received the primary assembly at Lumen Discipline, so shedding each would give the 49ers the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Seahawks will probably be coming off their bye, which ought to assist as they attempt to finish a six-game shedding streak to their division rivals.
Key participant anticipated again from harm: Abraham Lucas’ long-awaited return seems to be getting nearer. The third-year proper sort out — arguably the crew’s high O-lineman as a rookie in 2022 — has been on the bodily unable to carry out checklist whereas working his approach again from surgical procedure for a knee problem that sidelined him for a lot of 2023. He is again at apply and could possibly be on the sector in Week 11. — Henderson
