Probably the most fascinating matchups for the Bucs towards the Ravens on Monday Night time Soccer will probably be how Bucs head coach Todd Bowles decides to assault the Ravens’ favourite personnel grouping. The Ravens choose to run 12 personnel – comprising of 1 working again, two tight ends and two extensive receivers – on early downs as a lot as attainable.
The Ravens have gone heavy on first down, using not less than two tight ends or a good finish and a fullback, over 70% of the time. They rank seventh in EPA/play on first down within the NFL with a +0.057 mark. In opposition to the Washington Commanders final week, they have been in a position to exploit a protection that most popular to be in nickel by forcing them to play in base virtually 25 instances as a lot as they beforehand had throughout the remainder of the season.
To Tykee Or Not To Tykee, That’s The Query
Bucs DB Tykee Smith – Photograph by: USA In the present day
This presents an fascinating drawback for the Bucs. Nickelback Tykee Smith is a top-five participant on the Bucs protection. However will he get to see the sphere early? Or will he be relegated to third-down responsibility when the Ravens usually transfer to 11 personnel with three receivers?
Most would argue Smith must be on the sphere over Okay.J. Britt, however the determination isn’t an both/or between these two. When Smith comes on the sphere, it isn’t Britt who clears the sphere. It’s a defensive lineman. More often than not, it’s Logan Corridor.
If the Ravens are in 12p, they common 267 kilos per participant. The Bucs then have the selection to run base personnel, averaging 244 kilos per participant, or going nickel and lowering that mass by 78 kilos whole. Whereas base personnel permits the Bucs to match dimension higher, it unquestionably takes certainly one of their greatest gamers off the sphere.
Now, Smith is a improbable run defender, so maybe Bowles opts to maintain him on the sphere in these conditions. However that will be an enormous change in his tendencies this season.
BAL loves 2 run 12P on 1 and 2D as a lot as attainable. They’ve virtually as many performs out of 12p (86) as they do in 11p (94) per @SumerSports.
Bucs have matched 12p with base 79% of the time. Provides BAL the additional benefit of getting 1 of the Bucs greatest gamers (Tykee) off the sphere.
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 20, 2024
Ravens’ Distinctive Use Of 12P
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: USA In the present day
It’s not simply that Baltimore deploys heavy personnel normally, however particularly how they use it that makes it tough for opposing defenses to match.
Most groups use 12 personnel underneath middle and with each tight ends in-line. However the Ravens have a chess piece in tight finish Isaiah Probably, who they’ve deployed within the slot or out extensive on 132 of his 256 snaps this season. Additionally they have spent over 70% of their snaps in both shotgun or pistol.
If the Bucs select to go nickel and additional select to attempt to match the Ravens run recreation with a heavy 5-man entrance by bringing both Okay.J. Britt or Lavonte David onto the road of scrimmage, they’re opting to both depart a single linebacker on the second stage or forcing themselves right into a single-high pre-snap look.
This is able to make it tough for the Bucs to run cover-4, one thing Bowles has completed extra this yr than ever prior to now, until he’s snug working unique rotations post-snap with a backup cornerback in Tyrek Funderburk or Josh Hayes taking part in. All of it’s fascinating.
Kansas Metropolis making an attempt to match Baltimore’s 12p with nickel. pic.twitter.com/3W8V97kad3
— Joshua Queipo (@josh_queipo) October 20, 2024
The Bucs’ Run Protection This 12 months
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and ILB Lavonte David – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Usually a staple of a Todd Bowles protection, Tampa Bay has not been as stout towards the run this yr. They at the moment rank thirtieth in EPA/rush allowed. Nevertheless, when parsing these numbers, it seems the Bucs are nonetheless fairly good towards the bottom recreation on first down. They’re at the moment permitting -0.13 EPA/play in these conditions with only a 30.9% success charge.
On first down this season, the splits are stark between base and nickel so far as the Bucs’ run protection is anxious. With the additional defensive again, the Bucs are the fifth-worst run protection within the NFL, permitting 6.2 yards per carry and +0.07 EPA/play. After they go base, they transfer as much as third-best at 3.7 yards per carry allowed and -0.37 EPA/play allowed.
There isn’t a super state of affairs. If Tampa Bay goes nickel early towards Baltimore’s heavy personnel, it will likely be sacrificing dimension and placing themselves ready the place they haven’t been superb towards the run. But when they keep heavy, they open themselves as much as play-action the place Lamar Jackson has been unimaginable this yr, particularly over the center of the sphere.
Per Professional Soccer Focus, Jackson is finishing 73% of his passes whereas averaging 10 yards per try with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions on play-action this yr. They’ve him with a 90.5 grade per their grading metrics this yr. And when focusing on the intermediate middle of the sphere, an space the Bucs have struggled mightily to cowl this yr, he’s 23-of-26 for 369 yards and 4 touchdowns. That comes out to an 88.5 completion charge and 14.2 yards per try with an exceptional 97.2 grade from PFF.
Win or lose, the results of the Bucs’ Monday Night time matchup towards the Ravens will possible hinge largely on Bowles’ solutions for the Ravens’ distinctive matchup drawback.
