Matt Swartz has created a mannequin to mission salaries for arbitration eligible gamers, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Commerce Rumors for 14 years.
Within the baseball trade, groups and brokers decide arbitration salaries by figuring out comparable gamers. To mission your entire arbitration class on this manner would take a large quantity of effort and time. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to mission arbitration salaries that appears on the participant’s enjoying time, place, position, and efficiency statistics whereas accounting for inflation. The efficiency of comparable gamers issues, however our system isn’t straight choosing particular person comps for every particular person participant.
As a disclaimer, it ought to be emphasised that our projections aren’t for use as a scorecard for the agent and group on a person participant degree. A participant doing higher or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of something. Our arbitration projections are created as a instrument for our readers to get a common concept of a group’s payroll scenario.
The service time figures included aren’t official. Additionally, there’s not but a longtime Tremendous Two cutoff, which delineates which gamers with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That might lead to some late entrants being added to the record. It’s additionally price noting that contracts signed previous to the non-tender deadline aren’t typically thought-about to be regular arbitration comparables; contracts signed previous to that deadline might be skewed by gentle affords which might be offered to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it vogue (with “depart it,” in such situations, being a non-tender). That’s not common to all pre-tender offers however is regularly relevant.
In case you discover MLBTR’s arbitration projections helpful, please think about supporting us with a subscription. Commerce Rumors Entrance Workplace subscribers acquired early entry to those arbitration projections, and the subscription additionally consists of the most effective analysis instruments you may get with out really working for an MLB group: our contract tracker, and our company database.
The projections:
Angels (12)
Griffin Canning (5.075): $5.1MM
Luis Rengifo (5.043): $5.8MM
Taylor Ward (4.164): $9.2MM
Patrick Sandoval (4.149): $5.9MM
Jose Quijada (4.046): $1.1MM
Brock Burke (4.045): $1.2MM
Jose Suarez (4.022): $1.2MM
Carson Fulmer (3.108): $1MM
Jo Adell (3.085): $2.1MM
Matt Thaiss (3.038): $1.3MM
Mickey Moniak (3.027): $1.8MM
Reid Detmers (2.159): $1.9MM
Astros (10)
Framber Valdez (5.163): $17.8MM
Kyle Tucker (5.079): $15.8MM
Jose Urquidy (5.049): $3.75MM
Mauricio Dubon (4.162): $4.6MM
Luis Garcia (4.083): $1.875MM
Bryan Abreu (4.022): $3.7MM
Chas McCormick (4.000): $3.3MM
Jake Meyers (3.044): $2.2MM
Jeremy Pena (3.000): $4.4MM
Penn Murfee (2.169): $800K
Athletics (5)
Austin Adams (5.150): $1.7MM
Miguel Andujar (5.053): $2.8MM
Seth Brown (4.096): $3.8MM
Brent Rooker (3.059): $5.1MM
Dany Jimenez (2.162): $1MM
Blue Jays (10)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (5.157): $29.6MM
Erik Swanson (5.059): $3.2MM
Jordan Romano (5.051): $7.75MM
Genesis Cabrera (5.011): $2.5MM
Dillon Tate (4.144): $1.9MM
Daulton Varsho (4.128): $7.7MM
Alejandro Kirk (4.047): $4.1MM
Alek Manoah (3.063): $2.4MM
Zach Pop (2.171): $1MM
Ernie Clement (2.168): $1.7MM
Braves (6)
Ramon Laureano (5.159): $6.1MM
Cavan Biggio (5.110): $4.3MM
Huascar Ynoa (3.117): $825K
Jarred Kelenic (2.169): $2.3MM
Dylan Lee (2.150): $1.2MM
Eli White (2.140): $800K
Brewers (10)
Hoby Milner (5.068): $2.7MM
Aaron Civale (5.058): $8MM
Devin Williams (5.056): $7.7MM
Jake Bauers (4.084): $2.3MM
Bryse Wilson (4.036): $1.5MM
Joel Payamps (4.027): $2.8MM
Eric Haase (3.159): $1.8MM
William Conteras (3.112): $7.6MM
Nick Mears (3.022): $900K
Trevor Megill (3.002): $2MM
Cardinals (6)
Ryan Helsley (5.105): $6.9MM
JoJo Romero (4.045): $1.9MM
John King (3.145): $1.5MM
Lars Nootbaar (3.076): $2.5MM
Brendan Donovan (3.000): $3.6MM
Andre Pallante (2.145): $2.3MM
Cubs (14)
Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
Patrick Knowledge (4.058): $3MM
Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
Diamondbacks (8)
Zac Gallen (5.100): $14.1MM
A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.6MM
Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9MM
Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.3MM
Joe Mantiply (4.029): $1.6MM
Kyle Nelson (3.076): $800K
Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.1MM
Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.6MM
Dodgers (9)
Dustin Might (5.059): $2.135MM
Michael Kopech (5.041): $5.2MM
Brusdar Graterol (4.167): $2.7MM
Tony Gonsolin (4.152): $5.4MM
Evan Phillips (4.136): $6.2MM
Gavin Lux (4.114): $2.7MM
Alex Vesia (4.078): $1.9MM
Connor Brogdon (3.139): $800K
Anthony Banda (3.135): $1.1MM
Giants (4)
Mike Yastrzemski (5.128): $9.5MM
LaMonte Wade Jr. (5.035): $4.7MM
Tyler Rogers (5.034): $5.5MM
Camilo Doval (3.071): $4.6MM
Guardians (9)
Josh Naylor (5.127): $12MM
Lane Thomas (5.014): $8.3MM
James Karinchak (4.099): $1.9MM
Triston McKenzie (4.002): $2.4MM
Sam Hentges (3.157): $1.4MM
Nick Sandlin (3.157): $1.6MM
Eli Morgan (3.091): $1MM
Steven Kwan (3.000): $4.3MM
Ben Full of life (2.133): $3.2MM
Marlins (6)
Jesus Luzardo (4.165): $6MM
Anthony Bender (3.153): $1.4MM
Jesus Sanchez (3.118): $3.2MM
Braxton Garrett (2.168): $1.8MM
Nick Fortes (2.149): $1.6MM
Edward Cabrera (2.147): $2.2MM
Mariners (12)
Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
Mets (8)
Paul Blackburn (5.018): $4.4MM
Luis Torrens (4.105): $1.1MM
Tyrone Taylor (4.093): $2.9MM
David Peterson (4.089): $4.4MM
Alex Younger (4.085): $1.4MM
DJ Stewart (3.144): $1.7MM
Sean Reid-Foley (3.133): $900K
Tylor Megill (3.031): $2.1MM
Nationals (9)
Tanner Rainey (5.127): $1.9MM
Derek Regulation (5.081): $3MM
Ildemaro Vargas (5.007): $1.8MM
Kyle Finnegan (5.000): $8.6MM
Luis Garcia Jr. (3.142): $4.8MM
Josiah Grey (3.075): $1.4MM
Mason Thompson (3.046): $800K
Riley Adams (3.005): $1.1MM
MacKenzie Gore (3.000): $3.5MM
Orioles (15)
Gregory Soto (5.102): $5.6MM
Cedric Mullins (5.078): $8.7MM
Jorge Mateo (5.000): $3.2MM
Matt Bowman (4.137): $1.3MM
Ryan Mountcastle (4.105): $6.6MM
Cionel Perez (4.085): $2.1MM
Keegan Akin (4.083): $1.4MM
Trevor Rogers (4.075): $2.8MM
Jacob Webb (4.046): $1.7MM
Ramon Urias (4.025): $3.1MM
Tyler Wells (3.132): $2.1MM
Dean Kremer (3.112): $3.5MM
Emmanuel Rivera (3.026): $1.4MM
Adley Rutschman (3.000): $5.8MM
Kyle Bradish (2.160): $2.1MM
Padres (8)
Luis Arraez (5.121): $14.6MM
Dylan Stop (5.089): $13.7MM
Tyler Wade (5.058): $900K
Michael King (5.004): $7.9MM
Adrian Morejon (4.140): $1.8MM
Jason Adam (4.132): $5.3MM
Luis Patino (3.061): $800K
Luis Campusano (2.144): $1.7MM
Phillies (9)
Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
Pirates (9)
Dennis Santana (4.126): $1.8MM
David Bednar (4.076): $6.6MM
Ben Heller (3.165): $1MM
Connor Joe (3.136): $3.2MM
Johan Oviedo (3.079): $1.5MM
Bryan De La Cruz (3.056): $4MM
Joey Bart (3.020): $1.8MM
Colin Holderman (2.144): $1.4MM
Bailey Falter (2.138): $2.8MM
Rangers (5)
Nathaniel Lowe (4.145): $10.7MM
Jonah Heim (4.097): $4.8MM
Dane Dunning (4.078): $4.4MM
Josh Sborz (4.055): $1.3MM
Leody Taveras (3.124): $4.3MM
Rays (12)
Colin Poche (5.114): $3.4MM
Zack Littell (5.043): $4.8MM
Tyler Alexander (5.011): $2.8MM
Drew Rasmussen (4.111): $2MM
Dylan Carlson (4.104): $2.7MM
Cole Sulser (4.031): $1MM
Taylor Partitions (3.092): $1.3MM
Garrett Cleavinger (3.060): $1.4MM
Ben Rortvedt (3.043): $1.1MM
Jose Siri (3.015): $2.3MM
Richard Lovelady (3.008): $900K
Shane Baz (2.158): $1.9MM
Crimson Sox (3)
Tanner Houck (3.100): $4.5MM
Jarren Duran (2.155): $4.9MM
Kutter Crawford (2.136): $3.5MM
Reds (10)
Ty France (5.089): $8.6MM
Tejay Antone (5.000): $1.1MM
Santiago Espinal (4.149): 4MM
Jake Fraley (4.097): $3.3MM
Tyler Stephenson (4.056): $5.2MM
Austin Wynns (4.017): $1.4MM
Ian Gibaut (3.077): $800K
Sam Moll (3.075): $1.1MM
Alexis Diaz (3.000): $4.2MM
Nick Lodlo (3.000): $2.2MM
Rockies (10)
Dakota Hudson (5.141): $2.3MM
Cal Quantrill (5.132): $9MM
Austin Gomber (5.111): $5.6MM
Brendan Rodgers (5.075): $5.5MM
Jake Cave (5.071): $1.8MM
Peter Lambert (4.083): $1.5MM
Sam Hilliard (4.023): $1.7MM
Lucas Gilbreath (3.148): $900K
Justin Lawrence (2.167): $1MM
Ryan Feltner (2.143): $2.6MM
Royals (10)
Josh Taylor (5.121): $1.1MM
Hunter Harvey (5.047): $3.9MM
Brady Singer (4.156): $8.8MM
Kris Bubic (4.135): $2.8MM
Kyle Wright (4.062): $1.8MM
John Schreiber (4.027): $2MM
Carlos Hernandez (3.099): $1.2MM
Kyle Isbel (3.043): $1.7MM
MJ Melendez (2.153): $2.5MM
Daniel Lynch IV (2.136): 1.1MM
Tigers (11)
Tarik Skubal (4.114): $8MM
Casey Mize (4.111): $2MM
Jake Rogers (4.040): $2.5MM
Will Vest (3.100): $1.4MM
Zach McKinstry (3.099): $1.3MM
Jason Foley (3.033): $3.5MM
Matt Vierling (3.026): $3MM
Akil Baddoo (3.003): $1.6MM
Alex Lange (3.003): $1.3MM
Andy Ibanez (2.170): $1.5MM
Beau Brieske (2.134): $1.3MM
Twins (14)
Willi Castro (5.017): $6.2MM
Diego Castillo (5.001): $1MM
Jorge Alcala (4.165): $1.7MM
Ryan Jeffers (4.089): $4.7MM
Michael Tonkin (4.074): $1.5MM
Justin Topa (4.044): $1.3MM
Alex Kirilloff (3.141): $1.8MM
Bailey Ober (3.093): $4.3MM
Brock Stewart (3.093): $800K
Griffin Jax (3.091): $2.6MM
Joe Ryan (3.033): $3.8MM
Trevor Larnach (3.009): $2.1MM
Jhoan Duran (3.000): $3.7MM
Royce Lewis (2.142): $2.3MM
White Sox (9)
Nicky Lopez (5.139): $5.1MM
Matt Foster (4.093): $900K
Garrett Crochet (4.028): $2.9MM
Enyel De Los Santos (4.015): $1.7MM
Andrew Vaughn (4.000): $6.4MM
Justin Anderson (3.122): $1.1MM
Jimmy Lambert (3.108): $1.2MM
Gavin Sheets (3.076): $2.6MM
Steven Wilson (3.000): $1MM
Yankees (10)
Jon Berti (5.168): $3.8MM
Tim Mayza (5.129): $4MM
Nestor Cortes Jr. (5.094): $7.7MM
Jose Trevino (5.063): $3.4MM
Trent Grisham (5.060): $5.7MM
JT Brubaker (5.000): $2.275MM
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4.075): $6.9MM
Mark Leiter Jr. (4.031): $2.1MM
Clarke Schmidt (3.148): $3.5MM
Scott Effross (2.156): $900K
