Week 1 has historically been one of the crucial troublesome weeks in ESPN Eliminator Problem, particularly lately. Over the past two seasons, groups favored by a minimum of 4 factors in Week 1 are simply 6-7-1, resulting in many early eliminations.
Final season, the 2 chalky Week 1 picks each survived (Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders), whereas the following two hottest picks had been upset. Two years in the past, the chalkiest choose received (Ravens), however the three next-most well-liked selections both misplaced (Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans) or tied (Indianapolis Colts). General, the second-most well-liked alternative in Week 1 Eliminator Problem has misplaced in three of the final 4 seasons.
This season shapes up equally to earlier years with one apparent alternative on paper. The Cincinnati Bengals are the one group favored by greater than a landing at ESPN BET and have the perfect likelihood to win this week in line with each ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay’s mannequin. Not surprisingly, they’re additionally the preferred choose, as 30% of entrants selecting them as of Tuesday night. They’re additionally our high choose for Week 1, as we are going to experience the chalk.
Keep in mind, it isn’t too late to create your personal Eliminator Problem entry or be a part of a gaggle. Join free at present.
Click on right here to obtain Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, up to date weekly. Odds present as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
High picks
1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New England Patriots)Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OHSunday 1 p.m. ET
Make one choose every week and play for the $25,000 Grand Prize!
Play for Free
It is the chalky choose for a cause. Whereas underdogs are inclined to overachieve in Week 1, the most important favorites are inclined to handle enterprise. Groups favored by greater than a landing in Week 1 are 26-4 outright over the past 15 seasons (.867), whereas groups favored between 4-7 factors are 61-25-1 (.707). For these seeking to be contrarian, there are some causes to go different instructions. They are going to be a minimum of 79% favorites in two of their subsequent 5 video games after this week, so the Bengals maintain loads of future worth.
Nonetheless, these weeks additionally provide a number of different robust choices on paper. The Bengals are the most important favorites by far in Week 17, so burning them now could possibly be painful then, nevertheless it’s too early to be involved about 16 weeks from now. The Patriots are a robust candidate to be the worst group within the NFL, and fading them on the highway can be a staple of this column for months.
ESPN BET line: Bengals -8.5 (-425 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Bengals 82% likelihood to win (by 13.2)
Eliminator Problem: 30% chosen this week
2. Buffalo Payments (vs. Arizona Cardinals)Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NYSunday 1 p.m. ET
The Payments are a robust second alternative this week because the second-biggest favorites in line with the betting odds, Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics. One profit to utilizing the Payments is that they’ve the second-hardest schedule within the NFL, solely behind the Patriots.
Whereas the Payments are a top-five group coming into the season in line with ESPN Analytics, there are solely three extra video games after this week the place they’re projected to be a minimum of 70% favorites. Buffalo has additionally been a robust Week 1 group below Sean McDermott, profitable and overlaying the unfold in every of the final 4 seasons.
ESPN BET line: Payments -6 (-270 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Payments 77% likelihood to win (by 9.5)
Eliminator Problem: 13% chosen this week
3. Seattle Seahawks (vs. Denver Broncos)Lumen Area, Seattle, WASunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
The Seahawks are one other robust pivot off the Bengals chalk this week. That is their second-largest favourite position this season in line with Mike Clay and their largest favourite position all season in line with ESPN Analytics. First-round quarterbacks since 2021 are 0-9 of their first profession begins, and Seattle is a notoriously troublesome highway venue for Bo Nix to start his profession. The opposite profit with the Seahawks is that they’re at present being picked by simply 5% of Eliminator Problem individuals. If that quantity stays low, the Seahawks turn into probably the most attention-grabbing contrarian choose in Week 1 regardless of being the third-largest betting favorites.
ESPN BET line: Seahawks -6 (-250 moneyline)
ESPN Analytics: Seahawks 71% likelihood to win (by 7.6)
Eliminator Problem: 5% chosen this week
