Heading into the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ season, I’m persevering with my “10 Greatest Questions” sequence. Let’s contemplate what the crew’s working recreation would possibly appear to be in 2024.
Throughout an NFL crew’s run of success, its id can shift over and over. Modifications in personnel and training employees — and, after all, how groups attempt to beat it — will alter its method.
This has definitely been true for the Chiefs. When quarterback Patrick Mahomes took it over in 2018, the crew’s passing offense felt unstoppable. Combining Mahomes with two first-ballot Corridor of Famers like tight finish Travis Kelce and vast receiver Tyreek Hill — together with Professional Bowl tackles equivalent to Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz and the good offensive thoughts of head coach Andy Reid — allowed the offense to overpower the league for 3 full seasons. No one might discover a constant option to cease Kansas Metropolis’s passing recreation.
Finally, although, NFL groups will catch up. By 2021, defenses have been utilizing two-high security shells and quarters-based coverages to remove the Chiefs’ vertical passing recreation. (It didn’t assist that new tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie additionally lacked the cross safety prowess of Fisher and Schwartz, making deep dropbacks harder).
However these defensive changes left lighter packing containers up entrance, which offered a gap for the working recreation. Reid and Mahomes have been by no means going to function a run-first offense, however the specter of a dominant working recreation would assist the offense evolve.
So Reid got here into 2022 with an incredible plan to determine his working recreation. Hill was traded to the Miami Dolphins. Small, vertically-based vast receivers gave option to larger, blocking wideouts like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. These modifications — mixed with placing extra tight ends on the sphere — allowed the offense to develop into far more balanced. The run-pass choices have been decreased, which made the run ideas far more downhill and underneath middle. That suited the offensive line significantly better, because it might assault ahead.
In 2022, the Chiefs didn’t have a run-based offense — however once they put it entrance and middle, it modified video games. In Week 11’s matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers (and in Tremendous Bowl LVII towards the Philadelphia Eagles), Kansas Metropolis started the second half with a dominating, bodily working recreation. It modified the tenor of the sport and acquired the offense into rhythm.
However in 2023 — with an identical offensive construction — the offense fell aside. It dropped from first to fifteenth in factors scored and first to ninth in yards gained.
To make sure, the crew had issues with its vast receivers. That acquired essentially the most consideration. However what flew underneath the radar was how a lot the shortage of a working recreation impacted the offense. The Chiefs’ working recreation fell from tenth to 18th in anticipated factors added per play (EPA) and from sixth to twenty sixth in success fee. With out a sturdy working recreation, the offense couldn’t maintain drives (or end them within the pink zone) and even flip to it when the passing recreation wasn’t working.
Why did this occur? A few of it got here from worse play on the offensive inside. However blocking in different areas was a major downside. Changing Brown and Wylie with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor — each of them below-average run blockers — decreased the drive of the downhill working recreation. The crew struggled to seek out runs that might match both deal with, since each would fail to dispace defenders by whiffing on blocks.
The blocking from tight ends was additionally worse. Kelce didn’t make an actual affect till the playoffs. Even at his greatest, Noah Grey is simply a mean run blocker — and in 2023, Blake Bell’s blocking fell off a cliff. This stored the Chiefs from calling the pulling runs they’d used efficiently in prior years — just because their tight ends couldn’t deal with defensive ends one-on-one.
Going into 2024, nevertheless, there will probably be modifications. At left deal with, Smith will give option to Kingsley Suamataia, who tasks to be considerably higher as a run blocker. The second-round rookie has unimaginable dimension and athleticism. For his dimension, he pulls effectively. He can transfer in area — and has sufficient power to maul the entire line of scrimmage. As soon as he’s accustomed to the league’s pace, he will probably be a considerably higher run blocker than Smith was.
Rookie tight finish Jared Wiley must be an improve over Bell, too. He has the fitting dimension and size — and flashed a good quantity of run-blocking chops as a Y-tight finish in faculty. Coping with the power of NFL gamers will probably be an adjustment, however I’m nonetheless assured he’ll be an enchancment over Bell.
So the place will Kansas Metropolis’s working recreation be this season? Will it’s nearer to the 2022 model or 2023 model? Will the crew be capable of name runs that go well with their tackles — significantly Taylor — that may assist its working recreation? Will the inside offensive line return to its 2022 kind?
I don’t doubt the Chiefs’ passing recreation will probably be higher. The pace and explosiveness the crew has added means defenses will run man protection much less typically. That may add an offensive risk the crew hasn’t had since 2020.
Nevertheless it nonetheless gained’t be an extremely proficient group of vast receivers. So for the offense to get again to the highest, the working recreation should return. Whereas I consider the Chiefs have the personnel to do it, they’ll nonetheless have to show they’ll get their offense again to its potential.
