The Reds entered the 2024 season as hopeful contenders however discover themselves 5 video games beneath .500 and 10.5 video games again of the Brewers for the division lead within the Nationwide League Central. It’s definitely not how they drew issues up, however the tightly bunched NL wild-card image nonetheless leaves Cincinnati with some authentic playoff aspirations. The Reds are solely 4 video games again of the third NL wild-card spot in the meanwhile. They’re one in all many groups on the wild-card bubble whose deadline exercise will seemingly hinge on how the workforce performs within the coming weeks. The truth is, basic supervisor Brad Meador successfully confirmed as a lot to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
“Now we have to attend and see how we end off this street journey and the homestand developing, after which we’ll see,” Meador instructed Wittenmyer. “We’re speaking about it. We’d love to have the ability to add, however realistically, we’ll most likely simply should see the way it goes.”
The Reds management their very own destiny, in lots of respects. They may head into the upcoming All-Star break with a sequence of eminently winnable video games. They took the primary of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium Tuesday evening and have a tricky process ending off that sequence, however they’ll shut out the primary half towards three groups with sub-.500 data — together with the 2 worst golf equipment within the NL. On Friday, Cincinnati commences a 10-game homestand wherein they’ll host the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins for 3, 4 and three video games, respectively. The Reds will open the second half with a nine-game street journey via Washington, Atlanta and St. Petersburg earlier than beginning a house sequence towards the Cubs on July 29 (sooner or later earlier than the July 30 commerce deadline).
It’s a pivotal stretch of video games for the Reds, to say the least. A profitable streak may catapult them north of .500 and prominently into the wild-card hunt (whereas narrowing the division hole), whereas an underwhelming stretch towards among the less-competitive golf equipment on the upcoming schedule may function a loss of life knell for his or her 2024 postseason aspirations. Taking part in roughly .500 ball between now and July 30 would go away the entrance workplace with some more durable selections to make. For now, Meador acknowledged “imprecise” conversations exploring either side of the market whereas cautioning nothing is shut.
Among the many most notable commerce candidates on the roster, if the Reds go that route, might be Jonathan India and Frankie Montas. India is hitting .275/.381/.405 with 5 homers and eight steals on the season. He’s fanned in a career-low 19.7% of his plate appearances and has restored his stroll fee to a hefty 12.8% after seeing it dip to a mixed 8.6% in 2022-23.
India is enjoying out the primary season of a two-year, $8.8M contract that purchased out two of his three arbitration seasons. He’s locked right into a $5M wage for the 2025 season and could be arbitration-eligible within the 2025-26 offseason earlier than hitting the open market post-2026. He’s not defensive second baseman, however he’s been a line-drive machine on the plate this yr (24.9%) whereas displaying his finest Ok-BB profile since profitable NL Rookie of the 12 months in 2021.
Whereas India conceded to Wittenmyer that final yr’s slate of commerce rumblings received to him mentally, this time round he feels extra ready for it. The 27-year-old emphasised a need to stay in Cincinnati long-term, noting he “loves” the town and group whereas concurrently acknowledging {that a} potential commerce is past his management and never one thing on which he plans to dwell.
Montas could be the roster’s most simple commerce candidate. The 31-year-old hasn’t bounced again to his Oakland type however has been wholesome with the Reds after lacking practically the entire 2023 season as a result of shoulder surgical procedure. He’s on a one-year, $16M contract and has pitched to a 4.23 ERA in 72 1/3 innings throughout 15 begins.
Montas’ 95.1 mph common heater (through Statcast) is down from its 96.8 mph peak, and his 18.6% strikeout fee isn’t near his career-best 26.6% mark, set again in 2021. Nonetheless, he’s pitched like a succesful sufficient fourth starter and has seen his velocity construct because the season has progressed. Montas sat 94 mph together with his fastball via late April however is at 95.5 mph relationship again to Might 1.
Over Montas’ previous six begins, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings of three.73 ERA ball with a much-improved 23.3% strikeout fee. His 10.9% stroll fee in that stretch is simply too excessive, however the velocity and missed bats are starting to resurface. If he can proceed a few of these optimistic beneficial properties in velocity and strikeouts, Montas may very well be of curiosity to groups wanting so as to add to the center tier of their rotation.
The Reds produce other candidates to be moved, although their willingness to present out some stunning opt-out clauses over the winter may work towards them in that regard. Veterans Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez signed two-year contracts value $16M and $26M, respectively, however the second season of every of these offers is a participant possibility. As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco detailed for MLBTR Entrance Workplace subscribers earlier this week, such clauses typically current extreme impediments to buying and selling a participant.
Different names to look at within the occasion of a Reds sale would come with relievers Buck Farmer, Lucas Sims and Brent Suter. All three are free brokers at season’s finish. Every has had various ranges of success this season whereas enjoying on an reasonably priced wage. The return for any a kind of three seemingly wouldn’t be monumental however may shed a small cash off the payroll whereas including a lottery-ticket prospect to the decrease tiers of the farm system.
All of that’s placing the cart earlier than the horse, nonetheless. The Reds’ roster could have a pleasant window of winnable video games to persuade the entrance workplace that including items is the right route within the weeks forward. Cincinnati has obtained negligible manufacturing from the outfield, designated hitter and first base this season – though Noelvi Marte’s latest return seemingly means they’ll set up a productive hitter (Jeimer Candelario) in at first base extra often now. Including some type of bat to assist enhance the offense could be prudent – assuming the Reds can maintain themselves afloat and even enhance upon their standing within the subsequent couple weeks.
