Seahawks should re-establish NFC West competence earlier than returning to prominence

One of many prevalent themes of the back-end of the Pete Carroll period was the Seattle Seahawks’ important dropoff throughout the NFC West. The arrivals of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay have resulted in Seattle profitable only one division title, whereas the 49ers and Rams have every made the Tremendous Bowl twice (with the Rams profitable as soon as).

For the Seahawks to be severe playoff contenders once more beneath new head coach Mike Macdonald, one of many first steps isn’t just win the NFC West in itself, however not look as constantly outmatched as they’ve been for years throughout the division.

These stats will illustrate how adrift the Seahawks have been in opposition to their rivals, such that they’ve been quite a bit nearer to the principally dysfunctional and inept Arizona Cardinals than both the 49ers or Rams. The entire stats are particularly in-division matchups and embrace playoff video games.

Divisional Information (2017-2023)

Los Angeles Rams: 28-17San Francisco 49ers: 24-20Seattle Seahawks: 23-21 Arizona Cardinals: 13-30

Level Differential

Los Angeles Rams: +238San Francisco 49ers: +131Seattle Seahawks: -54Arizona Cardinals: -315

Margin of Victory

Los Angeles Rams: 401 (common per win: 14.3 pts)San Francisco 49ers: 304 (common per win: 10.9 pts)Seattle Seahawks: 171 (common per win: 6.1 pts) Arizona Cardinals: 107 (common per win: 8.2 pts)

Margin of Defeat

Los Angeles Rams: 163 (common per loss: 9.6 pts)San Francisco 49ers: 173 (common per loss: 8.6 pts)Seattle Seahawks: 225 (common per loss: 10.7 pts)Arizona Cardinals: 422 (common per loss: 14.1 pts)

Division Wins | Losses by 10+ Factors

Los Angeles Rams: 17 wins out of 28 | 8 losses out of 17San Francisco 49ers: 14 wins out of 24 | 8 losses out of 20 Seattle Seahawks: 8 wins out of 23 | 11 losses out of 21Arizona Cardinals: 7 wins out of 13 | 19 losses out of 30

In contrast to the Rams, who had rapid success with McVay, the 49ers had been 2-10 of their first 12 divisional video games beneath Kyle Shanahan, and have since gone 22-10.

Solely about one-third of Seattle’s division wins had been by double digits, whereas roughly half of their losses had been by double digits. They’ve had detrimental level differentials in NFC West video games in 5 of their final seven seasons. The Seahawks are 10-4 in opposition to the Cardinals with a degree differential of solely +46, which is unimaginable when you think about Arizona has been a sub-.400 crew. For context, the Rams are 13-2 versus the Cardinals in the identical span with a degree differential of +211.

Are divisional video games theoretically harder than non-divisional video games? Positive. However the Tremendous Bowl contending Seahawks put up 58-0, 42-13, 36-6, 35-6, 29-3, 24-3, 27-9, and 37-18 beatdowns in opposition to their NFC West foes whether or not they had been awful (2012 Cardinals) or championship caliber (2013 49ers, 2015 Cardinals). The odd clunker (see: 2014 Rams street sport) could possibly be forgiven after they had been additionally profitable their divisional matchups in thumping vogue.

The Seahawks of newer occasions have made the clunker the usual. They’ve dropped video games to the C.J. Beathard-led 49ers and Cardinals groups which have performed Drew Stanton, Colt McCoy, and (for a part of a sport) Brett Hundley at quarterback. A final minute comeback was required to beat a Rams crew beginning John Wolford and lacking Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp. Comparable comebacks had been wanted to beat Beathard and Brian Hoyer-led 49ers squads that completed a mixed 12-20. Twice the 49ers got here into Lumen Subject (in 2019 and 2022) and clinched the NFC West title on Seattle’s house turf. Seattle led for 0 minutes of both sport. The 2017 Rams gave the Seahawks their worst ever loss at Lumen Subject with the division successfully at stake. And, after all, each the Niners and Rams have knocked Seattle out of the playoffs in lopsided vogue.

What’s modified?

Check out these two tables:

Whereas the Seahawks of outdated did have their factors per sport lowered in division video games, they fully dominated their NFC West foes on protection. The ultimate years of the Carroll period offered the worst of each worlds, and their common level differential is superior outdoors the division than inside. Not perfect when roughly 35% of your schedule is in opposition to the identical three groups.

I’m not saying the Seahawks are in “NFC West or bust” mode for 2024, however I’m arguing that this is among the many justified causes to maneuver on from Pete and begin anew with Coach Macdonald. As soon as they misplaced their grip on the 49ers rivalry, it was the purpose of no return. We’ll know whether or not or not Seattle is heading in the right direction again to competition when these division video games don’t oscillate between needlessly shut in opposition to inferior opposition to wildly non-competitive in opposition to Tremendous Bowl contenders.