Welcome again to High of the Order, the place each Tuesday and Friday I’ll be beginning your baseball day with some information, notes, and ideas concerning the sport we love.
No division race is tighter than the AL East, with the Yankees main the Orioles by simply 1.5 video games forward of their three-game matchup that begins tonight within the Bronx. Each groups are digital locks to make the playoffs, however securing the division title is essential due to the almost-certain bye that may include it. This can be a fierce race that appears prefer it’ll go all the way down to the wire, however these head-to-head video games won’t be as necessary for his or her divisional hopes as their off-the-field showdown main as much as the commerce deadline.
Whereas the Orioles and Yankees gained’t have a lot overlap by way of commerce wants — and as such gained’t be competing for lots of the similar gamers — they’re clearly competing to get higher and construct extra full rosters to allow them to outlast the opposite and make a deep October run. The factor is, contemplating there are solely 5 groups proper now which might be out of the playoff image — the White Sox, Marlins, Athletics, Rockies, and Angels — precise upgrades obtainable on the buying and selling block may be in brief provide. Meaning the Yankees and Orioles might want to capitalize on no matter enhancements they’ll make. This setting might set the stage for New York and Baltimore to be among the many most energetic groups over the following month and a half.
The Yankees have arguably the 2 finest hitters in the complete league in Aaron Decide and Juan Soto, and although the remainder of the lineup is nice, it doesn’t encourage almost as a lot confidence. Anthony Volpe’s flattened swing path has helped him minimize down on his strikeout fee and spray extra hits to the other subject, however this month his strikeout fee is again as much as 27% and he hasn’t walked since Might 30. Alex Verdugo has been solidly above common and stabilized left subject, which had a cavalcade of gamers come by way of final yr, and Giancarlo Stanton’s streakiness has labored itself out to a 121 wRC+ and 17 homers, although his on-base proportion is beneath .300. The catching duo of Jose Trevino and Austin Wells has come round too, although Trevino’s throwing points have been firmly on show on Sunday, when the Pink Sox stole 9 (!) bases in opposition to him.
After which there’s the triumvirate of underperforming infielders: Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and DJ LeMahieu. I’d be shocked if Torres didn’t preserve his job; after an anemic begin, his bat has began to come back round (112 wRC+ since Might 12). However LeMahieu hasn’t hit a lot in any respect since signing his six-year deal earlier than the 2021 season, and Rizzo has struggled for a full calendar yr now, although not less than a few of his 2023 woes will be attributed to the post-concussion syndrome that triggered him to overlook the ultimate two months of final season. Additional complicating issues is Rizzo’s newest damage, a fractured proper arm that gained’t require surgical procedure however will preserve him out for an estimated 4 to 6 weeks, in keeping with The Athletic. Within the short-term, the Yankees are anticipated to play Oswaldo Cabrera at third and LeMahieu at first, with catcher/first baseman Ben Rice prone to substitute Rizzo on the roster. A bat like Rockies third baseman Ryan McMahon would go a great distance towards lengthening the lineup whereas additionally bettering the protection.
The Orioles, then again, have gotten robust manufacturing up and down the lineup, except Cedric Mullins, who has made up for his offensive struggles with glorious protection. However their pitching — extensively considered as a power coming into the offseason — has been hammered by accidents.
The Yankees weathered the lack of Gerrit Cole with aplomb — a lot in order that I’m unsure they’ll have to be out there for beginning pitching, whilst Clarke Schmidt is predicted to be out for some time with a lat pressure. Cole is slated to be activated and make his season debut tomorrow night time. In the meantime, the sheer amount of Orioles starters on the IL all however necessitates making an acquisition on that entrance. Dean Kremer shall be again quickly from triceps tightness, however Tyler Wells and John Means are out for the yr, and Kyle Bradish might be destined for a similar destiny. He not too long ago landed on the IL for a second time this yr with a sprained UCL in his elbow. That leaves AL Cy Younger frontrunner Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kremer as the highest three starters of a playoff rotation, with the revelatory Albert Suárez and Cole Irvin proper behind and rookie Cade Povich doubtlessly pushing for a spot as properly.
There will surely be worse playoff rotations across the league, however the O’s could be doing a disservice to their deep offense in the event that they uncared for to enhance their beginning pitching, particularly after they failed to deal with final yr’s rotation earlier than the deadline after which have been pounded by the Rangers and swept out of the ALDS. Their wealth of place participant depth within the minor leagues ought to permit them so as to add not less than one or two of the highest obtainable starters: Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde, Tyler Anderson, Cal Quantrill, and Jesús Luzardo.
The one mutual want for the Yankees and Orioles is the place all groups overlap on the deadline: the bullpen. Each groups have glorious back-end duos — Baltimore has Craig Kimbrel and Yennier Cano, whereas New York boasts Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver — however there’s a steep dropoff after that. The shallow vendor’s market must create a lesser provide of accessible reduction arms, which might probably inflate the price that groups would ask for in return. That is the place the power of the New York and Baltimore farm methods (each of that are glorious) actually come into play. These two organizations can afford to overpay for a 3rd high-octane reliever — similar to Carlos Estévez, Tanner Scott, Michael Kopech, and even perhaps Mason Miller — with out sacrificing their long-term outlook.
The ultimate distinction is the 2 groups’ disparate payroll conditions. Whereas it doesn’t seem as if the Yankees have any restrictions for this season — and the pursuit of preserving Soto certainly shall be unaffected — proprietor Hal Steinbrenner actually seems like a person who desires to lower payroll from the $302 million it’s at this season. Subsequent yr’s payroll is already at $182 million, and that’s earlier than factoring in arbitration raises to key gamers like Trevino, Schmidt, and Nestor Cortes — to not point out the exorbitant worth that’ll be required to re-sign Soto. Torres and Verdugo are additionally set to hit free company this offseason, and the present payroll determine for 2025 doesn’t embrace what it’ll price both to carry them again or backfill their positions. That would make them much less curious about buying and selling for gamers on assured contracts past this season, even those that would match properly, like McMahon.
On the flip aspect, the Orioles have a rare quantity of flexibility underneath new proprietor David Rubenstein, who hasn’t publicly commented on particular payroll plans however basically can’t do something however spend greater than the Angelos household did within the final a number of years of its possession. Big raises are coming for Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Bradish, and others, however Baltimore has a paltry $2 million dedicated to subsequent season. That ought to give GM Mike Elias carte blanche to accumulate anybody he desires on the deadline irrespective of what number of years of membership management the participant has remaining, supplied he’s prepared to surrender the required prospects.
All of it will play out over the following six weeks earlier than the deadline. Within the meantime, the battle for the AL East begins in earnest tonight.
