Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: Odds, full struggle preview and prediction | UFC St. Louis

Final Preventing Championship (UFC) Heavyweight bruisers Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento will throw down TONIGHT (Sat., Might 11, 2024) inside Enterprise Heart in St. Louis, Mo., for UFC St. Louis.

Very deep into his UFC profession, Lewis — probably the most prolific knockout artist in UFC historical past — is beginning to decelerate. The 39-year-old veteran has misplaced 4 of his final 5 bouts, although it’s price noting that at the very least all the lads who defeated him have been Prime 10 opposition. Conversely, the only real win in his latest stretch got here when Lewis fought down a bit towards Marcos Rogerio de Lima, leading to an enormous knockout (watch highlights). Nascimento is one other step again. Ignoring a outcome overturned due to a failed drug check, the Brazilian has received 4 of his final 5, however it’s arduous to argue any of these performances have been notably spectacular. Maybe that is his probability to standout?

Let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Lewis Vs. Nascimento Betting Odds

Derrick Lewis victory: -165

Derrick Lewis through TKO/KO/DQ: -135

Derrick Lewis through submission: +3000

Derrick Lewis through determination: +1600

Rodrigo Nascimento victory: +130

Rodrigo Nascimento through TKO/KO/DQ: +380

Rodrigo Nascimento through submission: +350

Rodrigo Nascimento through determination: +1200

Draw: +5000

Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Lewis Wins

Lewis has among the heaviest arms within the historical past of combined martial arts (MMA). He’s not a fantastic technician wherever, but when a Lewis overhand connects or he finds his option to prime place at any level, the struggle could be very probably over.

Certainly, 22 knockouts in 27 wins is not any joke.

I’ve been tasked with writing technique for Lewis a pair dozen occasions now, and it’s a constantly difficult activity. The person has one technique: he explodes at vary with leaping kicks and knees, closes distance after which swings for the fences. Sometimes, he’ll search for takedowns and attempt to drop heavy floor strikes.

That’s it.

Lewis doesn’t actually alter to his opponents. He wins this struggle if his energy punches land on the chin of Nascimento, in any other case he’ll lose to the extra expert athlete. It’s the identical state of affairs as all of his different fights, however there are some attention-grabbing questions on how Nascimento handles this problem …

How Nascimento Wins

At about 260 kilos, Nascimento is a big Heavyweight with a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Nearly all of his victories come through tapout, however Nascimento has proven to have respectable arms and good energy as nicely.

There are traditionally two constant paths to victory towards “Black Beast.” One can both stand at kicking vary and decide him aside (a la Ciryl Gane and Junior dos Santos), or a talented grappler can management him on the canvas till a submission opens up (like Daniel Cormier and Serghei Spivac). Nascimento has the talents to chase both path, however which is extra prone to succeed?

Grappling appears his finest guess. Lewis’ explosions off his again are trying much less dynamic and have a tendency to return much less typically as of late. Plus, all that power expenditure means his punches are much less whipping when he does return to his ft. If Nascimento is constant in his wrestling and cautious when the 2 do trade, he has a particular path to carrying out Lewis on the ground and wrapping up a strangle late within the struggle.

Lewis Vs. Nascimento Prediction

I believe Lewis has a number of extra knockouts left in him.

Not towards anybody notably good, thoughts you, however Nascimento isn’t that man. He’s completely common, and his win streak is constructed up of beating Don’Story Mayes twice and sneaking away with a pair break up choices. I’m reminded of only a couple months in the past, when Shamil Gaziev was introduced up off the undercards to randomly face off with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Simply because the A-side of a Heavyweight struggle is shedding fights to the highest tier doesn’t imply a mediocre expertise will substitute them!

Lewis hits too arduous and is simply too tough to manage. Ultimately, he’ll get again to his ft, swing large and discover his goal.

Prediction: Lewis through knockout (-135)

Keep in mind that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC St. Louis struggle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, earlier than the primary card begin time at 7 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN/ESPN+).

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