UFC 301 odds: Opening and shutting betting line actions | Pantoja vs. Erceg

UFC 301 goes down later this night (Sat., Might 4, 2024) from inside Farmasi Area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The occasion is a “Brazil vs. The World”-type affair from the pay-per-view (PPV) principal occasion all the way in which all the way down to the curtain jerker. It’s “Brazil vs. Australia” in the principle occasion (which might be a equipment conflict in most different sports activities), with Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, staking his title in opposition to comparatively unknown, Steve Erceg.

The co-main occasion has Brazilian blended martial arts (MMA) royalty on present with Jose Aldo coming back from a faux-retirement to tackle Jonathan Martinez within the Bantamweight division. Rounding out UFC 301’s PPV principal card is former title challenger, Anthony Smith, taking over the undefeated Vitor Petrino, motion fighter Michel Pereira assembly Ihor Potieria and motion grappler Paul Craig assembly inaction professional, Caio Borralho.

UFC 301’s “Prelims” later tonight have some fascinating additions, too; with Drakkar Klose assembly Joaquim Silva and Ismael Bonfim going through off with Vinc Pichel.

I’ve been watching the percentages for these bouts all week searching for fascinating canine, props and parlays. On this submit, I’m going to give attention to line motion between now and earlier this week (Monday) to see the place the cash is coming in. This fashion you may determine if you wish to observe stated cash or fade it.

UFC 301 PPV Primary Card Line Motion

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The Pantoja vs. Erceg line has remained the identical since Monday. This might point out that there’s loads of motion on each Pantoja and Erceg, with the champion a slight favourite and the challenger a slight underdog. The chances listed here are reflective of Erceg being a contemporary, younger and fascinating challenger who is comparatively untested in UFC’s 125-pound division, but in addition somebody who most likely hasn’t proven us what he’s able to but. Loads of of us look prepared to journey with him on Saturday to see if they’ll make a small revenue off the assumption that he’s trending upward. The road on Pantoja — and the way it has remained nonetheless — tells us of us are nonetheless prepared to purchase Pantoja as a stable Flyweight veteran who’s battle-tested and confirmed he can win robust fights over lengthy rounds. The one doubt on him is whether or not he’s had too many robust fights on high of all of the years he’s been within the recreation.

I could make an argument for both man on this one, but when I needed to decide, I’d aspect with Pantoja simply because we’ve seen extra of him.

Jonathan Martinez (-142) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)

There was a bit of little bit of motion on the traces for UFC 301’s co-main occasion. Aldo has seen his underdog standing lower barely from +136 on Monday to +120 now. I believe this exhibits the general public nonetheless have fond recollections of Aldo they usually wish to again him to win on his return to UFC. Due to this, Martinez’s line has additionally shifted a bit of. He was a -162 favourite firstly of the week, however now you may get him at -142 — which needs to be interesting to those that assume Aldo is simply too near 40 and too rusty to make a profitable comeback to the Octagon.

Anthony Smith (+425) vs. Vitor Petrino (-575)

The general public assume Smith is in a whole lot of bother on Saturday night time. The oddsmakers had him as a +390 canine on Monday, however with cash coming in in opposition to him, his odds have now grown to +425. Smith — a former title challenger — has been stopped in two of his final 5 fights. Petrino is undefeated (11-0) and, earlier than beating Tyson Pedro, knocked out Modestas Bukauskas chilly with a clear examine hook (see it right here). We’ll get into props later, however Petrino is at present simply +100 to win this battle by way of (technical) knockout.

Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+470)

Pereira’s odds have been slashed from -535 to -650 as public cash has rushed in on what seems like the most important mismatch of the cardboard. Pereira has regarded superior as of late. Potieria, alternatively, has regarded terrible and appears destined to be on the improper aspect of a highlight-reel knockout. Pereira is detrimental odds to win by way of TKO/KO (-150). With a single guess on Pereira netting again little or no in return, he’s possible that includes on numerous parlays together with the remainder of UFC 301’s heavy favorites.

Paul Craig (+470) vs. Caio Borralho (-650)

Talking of heavy favorites … Borralho’s odds have shifted from -550 to -650 over the week, most likely as a result of he’s been put into so many parlays together with Pereira. The boldness in Borralho is sort of definitely because of perception that his smothering, no-fun grappling recreation will probably be too highly effective for the very enjoyable high-risk, high-reward grappling recreation of Craig.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Motion

Jack Shore (+150) vs. Joanderson Brito (-180)

There’s been some fascinating motion for the “Prelims,” together with with this battle. This one began out as +124 for Shore versus -148 for Brito. Nonetheless, it appears the general public are shopping for into Brito. That’s excellent news when you assume it is a shut match-up and Shore may cause the upset on enemy territory.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-395)

Kowalkiewicz’s line of +330 regarded a bit of foolish to me on Monday and it appears not less than just a few folks agree. Bets on the previous UFC Strawweight title challenger have shortened her odds to +310. I nonetheless assume that’s excessive given she is on a four-fight win streak and has executed extra within the cage, each recently and previously, than Lucindo has. Lucindo was a -425 favourite to begin the week. For those who assume it is a squash match, watch that line carefully since it could are available in much more as extra of us get tempted to guess on Kowalkiewicz.

Elves Brener (+210) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-258)

There’s not a lot change on this line. Brener was +230 on Monday, whereas Orolbai was -285.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Struggle is canceled after William Gomis regarded horrible on the scales (see that right here).

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Beneath Card Line Motion

Joaquim Silva (+154) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)

Klose’s odds to beat Silva have actually shortened. On Monday he was -162. Just a few days previous to that he was -142. Silva’s odds have grown barely from +140 since Monday. Klose regarded good in beating Joe Solecki with a slam within the first spherical in again in Dec. 2023 (watch highlights). That prolonged his win streak to a few fights. That streak began after he was sidelined for 2 years due to an ACL damage.

Mauricio Ruffy (-218) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)

Mullarkey’s odds have been probably the most risky of anybody on this card. He has continued to develop as an underdog, with seemingly some huge cash heading towards Ruffy (who’s making his UFC correct debut, as a 30-year-old, off the again of a Contender Sequence win). You would have gotten Ruffy at -175 earlier this week. Mullarkey began the week as a +145 canine. Remarkably, Mullarkey was a favourite when this battle was introduced. I believe Mullarkey has worth as an underdog right here, since I’m not offered on Ruffy — the Brazilian seems fairly chaotic and hittable to me.

Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

Some huge cash seems to have are available in on Barbosa over the week, along with her odds shrinking from -205 to -238. That has seen Kareckaite go from a +170 canine to +195 (and I believe that can go even increased). Barbosa feels just like the significantly better MMA fighter on this match-up and he or she may be very harmful on the bottom. Kareckaite seems like a kickboxer who will probably be overwhelmed as soon as Barbosa takes her down.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

There’s been no change within the odds for Bonfim vs. Pichel this week. Appears there are many of us in each camps, betting on Bonfim as a big favourite (maybe packaged in a parlay with all the opposite ones) and betting on Pichel as an intriguing underdog. I personally wouldn’t contact Pichel, who’s over 40 now and has not been lively sufficient in UFC to justify his place on a PPV.

Alessandro Costa (-130) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

There’s been little or no change on these betting traces. Costa was -125 to begin the week. Borjas was +105.

UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays

I’ve regarded over the props and potential parlays for this card and under are some fascinating bets. Bear in mind, although, by no means guess something you may’t afford to lose.

5-pick parlay: Ismael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira and Victor Petrino (+163)

For those who bundle collectively all the large favorites on this card you continue to solely get +163 odds. It seems like rather a lot wants to interrupt your solution to decide 5 fights accurately, however if you wish to root for these favorites and try to revenue of them, this is likely to be safer than going for prop bets. I believe all of those fighters will win, the one query marks for me are if Smith has an excessive amount of veteran craft for Petrino or if Bonfim tries to cruise in opposition to Pichel and will get shocked.

Three-pick parlay: Dione Barbosa to win by submission, Elves Brener vs. Myktykbek Orolbai below 2.5 rounds, Michel Pereira to win (+740)

That is me packaging collectively the three issues I’ve appreciated probably the most this week. I believe Barbosa is being undervalued as a favourite and he or she may have ample alternatives to submit Kareckaite. I imagine each Brener and Orolbai are able to ending one another and that it’s going to occur on the early aspect of the battle, maybe of their first couple of floor exchanges. And it simply appears apparent that Pereira will win on Saturday any darn manner he desires.

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho to go the space (+150)

Borralho will not be going to go for the end right here. Craig can solely win this on the bottom, so I believe Borralho will probably be content material to simply forestall giving him any alternatives to that and can lay on him for quarter-hour. He’ll faucet away with punches to forestall a arise, however received’t threat posturing up and leaving himself open for a triangle. After the ultimate bell rings, Borralho will don his specs and provides us a giant smile whereas the judges’ 30-27 scores are learn, realizing he prevented a pitfall and put in a simple night time’s work to maneuver up a wrung on the ladder at Middleweight.

Michel Pereira to beat Ihor Potieria by way of submission (+350)

There’s a superb likelihood Pereira comes out firing and finishes Potieria with a Tekken-style mixture to win this bout in lower than one minute (you may get +500 on this bout ending inside a minute, by the way in which). Nonetheless, let’s not consider Pereira as only a placing risk. The person has seven wins by submission, together with his victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk final outing (which occurred at 1:01 within the first spherical). Pereira received his third UFC battle by submission, too (over Zelim Imadaev in 2020). If Pereira desires to grapple, he’ll definitely be capable to in opposition to Potieria. Pereira’s takedown accuracy is mediocre at 55 %, however Potieria’s takedown protection is woeful at 57 %.

UFC 301 Ballot Time

Which of those props and parlays do you just like the look of probably the most?

Any parlays or props pique your curiosity? Hit us up within the feedback under.

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of your entire UFC 301 battle card proper right here, beginning with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), earlier than the pay-per-view (PPV) principal card begin time at 10 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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