Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig: Odds, full struggle preview and prediction | UFC 301

Final Preventing Championship (UFC) Middleweight grapplers Caio Borralho and Paul Craig will throw down this weekend (Sat., Might 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Enviornment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 301

No. 14-ranked Caio Borralho has separated himself from the 185-pound pack for a quite simple cause: he’s fairly good, and most Middleweights usually are not. He could not at all times be an exhilarating watch, however Borralho has a well-rounded ability set, nice conditioning, and the power to really observe a recreation plan.

Craig makes for the proper foil, as a result of he’s dangerous by a number of goal metrics. In fact, that hasn’t stopped him from defeating former and future champions like Jamahal Hill and Mauricio Rua! Craig is uniquely harmful, and he can by no means be actually counted out of a struggle regardless of his apparent flaws.

Let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig Betting Odds

Caio Borralho victory: -540
Caio Borralho through TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Caio Borralho through submission: TBD
Caio Borralho through determination: TBD
Paul Craig victory: +340
Paul Craig through TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Paul Craig through submission: TBD
Paul Craig through determination: TBD
Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Borralho Wins

Caio Borralho is a brilliant and tactical fighter. He makes use of a karate-style stance and motion to take care of distance, scoring kicks and occasional counter punches. More often than not, he’s ready for a second to time his athletic double leg, and he’s a black belt on the ground.

There’s a transparent cause that Borralho is such a big favourite: he’s simply higher. He’s the sharper kickboxer by a transparent margin, the superior wrestler, and Borralho’s jiu-jitsu is superb in its personal proper. He has the ability to grapple with Craig and keep away from the triangle, notably since everybody is aware of that’s Craig’s ace within the gap.

In his final bout, Borralho let Abus Magomedov tire himself out a bit then actually upped the strain and quantity within the second. The same recreation plan appears smart right here, in that Borralho can slowly beat up Craig then flip up the aggression as Craig begins to really feel the punishment. Borralho wants finishes to climb the ladder rapidly and shed his boring popularity — it is a good opponent for these objectives.

How Craig Wins

I say this with love: Paul Craig is without doubt one of the wonkiest fighters on the roster. His kickboxing recreation is inconsistent, his protection isn’t nice, he at all times falls to his knees when taking pictures double leg takedowns — but he has a genuinely nice resume and has labored into the Prime 10 in two separate divisions.

Scottish magic, maybe? Craig doesn’t give up, and he’ll flip a small opening right into a damaged arm actual fast.

Match ups by no means look good for Craig on paper, however this isn’t an inconceivable struggle for him. Borralho just isn’t a fearsome puncher, so Craig can really feel extra snug in advancing behind combos and kicks. We haven’t actually seen Borralho’s takedown protection examined, so maybe Craig can certainly muscle him to the ground.

If not, Craig hits fairly onerous. At worst, his aggression most likely attracts a takedown from Borralho, which not less than will get Craig to the ground the place he needs to be.

Borralho vs. Craig Prediction

My prediction might be pretty apparent at this level.

Barring a sudden Craig triangle choke — at all times doable! — Borralho ought to win this struggle all over the place. He’s youthful, higher, and on the rise. He has the abilities and smarts to maintain himself out of hassle whereas nonetheless delivering an ass-kicking. Very similar to Brendan Allen did in Craig’s final struggle, Borralho ought to be capable of beat his opponent up wherever the struggle goes, and the specter of the submission subsides after a specific amount of punches land.

The Brazilian ought to thoughts his P’s and Q’s, however it is a stylistic layup.

Prediction: Borralho victory (-540)