Certain phrases stick with you. In football, one of my favorite phrases comes from the late, great Terez Paylor.
Ford just secured the bag, folks. He’s agreed to a five-year deal worth $87.5 million, a source confirms.
And the contract year, my friends, remains undefeated.
— RIP Terez A. Paylor (@TerezPaylor) March 13, 2019
That phrase signifies that often, when a player is in the last year of their contract, they have a career year before they have an opportunity to get paid. There are countless examples of this happening.
Even recently, you could look at right guard Trey Smith for the Chiefs. Smith was in a contract year last season and played the best football in his career. Because of that season, Smith was franchise-tagged and is now negotiating a contract that might make him the highest-paid guard in the league.
With contract years, it’s typically associated with rookie contract players about to get paid for the first time. Since NFL careers are so short, there’s no guarantee you get two long-term deals in the league. The second contract is the most important to maximize, as it takes you through most of your athletic prime.
For the Chiefs, their 2022 draft class is now entering its contract year. It’s fair to expect some of them to have their best seasons. The question is: which ones will it be? Let’s go through the draft class and discuss each player:
Note: Offensive lineman Darian Kennard was cut and doesn’t qualify for this.
Cornerback Trent McDuffie
If we’re being honest, there is nothing McDuffie should have to prove in a contract year. McDuffie has played at a top-five level for each of his three seasons in the NFL. He’s a versatile and dominant player from both the slot and outside. He’s turning 25 this season and has been healthy. There’s no excuse not to pay him. In fact, the Chiefs should probably find a way to do it this offseason.
McDuffie will likely have the best contract year of this group, but that’s an easy answer, so let’s move on.
Defensive end George Karlaftis
With Karlaftis and McDuffie, the fifth-year option looms as a possibility. Karlaftis would make $15.2 million on the fifth-year option, which might prove to be a bargain by next offseason.
Because that $15.2 million is a high cap hit, the Chiefs could look to extend him next offseason to lower that. If that’s the case, Karlaftis’s season becomes super important. Due to the necessity and market for pass rushers, Karlaftis could be in line for a massive bag if he has a career year. Karlaftis is only 24 right now and has played three good seasons already. If he takes another jump, he could be due to get a similar extension earned by Buffalo Bills defensive end Gregory Rousseau (4 years, $80 million, $54 million guaranteed).
Karlaftis probably has the biggest swing in what he could make depending on his output in 2025.
Wide receiver Skyy Moore
This one is sadly a lost cause. The Chiefs have moved on from having Moore be a significant part of their team. There’s no real path to playing time to get him paid.
Safety Bryan Cook
Cook is a decent candidate to get paid in free agency. Cook hasn’t played great in the NFL so far, but young safeties in their primes get paid. Safety Trevon Moerhig just signed a three-year, $51 million deal this offseason. If Cook can show more ball production and tackling this season, he could get paid.
However, that would require a massive leap from him. Cook has somewhat of a JAG (just a guy) on this defense for two seasons, which isn’t great for his prospects of getting paid.
Linebacker Leo Chenal
Of all these players, this one fascinates me the most. Chenal is such an interesting player. His strengths — his blitzing, ability to hold and plug a gap, take on blocks — are all 99th percentile. The issue with Chenal is that he’s limited in every other way.
Now, if Chenal can show more development in the other aspects of his game, teams could buy his upside. There are defenses around the league that weaponize players with his skill set, but he needs to show more as a traditional linebacker. He will struggle to get paid if he can only play 30-40% of snaps. Chenal’s going to have to prove that he’s able to play more snaps.
Cornerback Joshua Williams
With the addition of Kristian Fulton and Nohl Williams, it seems impossible for Williams to get snaps this season. I wonder if the Chiefs will look to trade him before the season.
Cornerback Jaylen Watson
Cornerback is typically a bad position to sign in free agency, so if Watson has a fantastic season, teams will want to sign a cornerback with his length and ball skills in his prime. Watson’s play is important because of the volatile state of the cornerback position. If he has a bad year, he won’t get paid. If he has a career year, someone will pay him well.
Running back Isiah Pacheco
Pacheco’s upcoming season is super important to getting paid. There are only 32 starting running back jobs in the league. Pacheco is in the bottom half of starting running backs in the league. If his play doesn’t return closer to what it was when he was a rookie, he could struggle finding a good opportunity to get paid and receive carries.
However, if he puts it together, he could get paid. Pacheco has proven to be a good playoff player, so if he can combine that with a strong regular season, I could see a team loving his skillset and passion and pay him.
Cornerback Nazeeh Johnson
Johnson is in an even worse spot than Williams to get snaps. The Chiefs are just too deep at cornerback for Johnson to get a chance.
Who do you believe will have the best contract years among these players?
