Mailbag: What are Tom Aspinall’s options right now? And what is the next great UFC rivalry?

Well, what do we have here, a down week in MMA?

That’s right, folks, this weekend is one of the rarest occurrences in professional sports: a Saturday without the UFC. Given that (and that this past weekend’s card was as memorable as a Tuesday afternoon team meeting), our topics this week are mostly discussions of possible futures. So let’s get our Dr. Strange on and dive right in.

Tom Aspinall and Jon Jones

“Jon Jones is hiding away in Thailand playing with Hasbulla like he’s a baby and doing anything but unifying the belts. What can Tom Aspinall do, if anything, to force the UFC’s hand since they are apparently OK with keeping him on ice waiting for Jones indefinitely?”

Nothing. Tom Aspinall can do nothing to force anyone to do anything in this situation. It’s the sad reality that he faces.

With the UFC’s market power, fighters have almost no leverage whatsoever. Fighters who aren’t stars are almost completely beholden to the will of the UFC, but at this point, even the biggest stars in the sport cannot force the UFC’s hand. The only real weapon any star has to wield in this battle is a refusal to fight, but that doesn’t work when the issue is getting Jon Jones to fight him in the first place. That’s like trying to break up with your ex-girlfriend — it doesn’t work.

So Tom is functionally stuck in limbo, waiting for Jon to agree to fight him, for the UFC to up their offer to Jon, or for the UFC to finally call it quits and strip Jon. And there is nothing Tom can do about it.

That being said, if I were in Tom’s corner, I would be telling him to do two things. The first thing I’d do is take a fight with someone else. Every reasonable person recognizes Tom Aspinall is the real heavyweight champion at this stage, so just defend your belt. There’s no amount of cajoling or needling you can do that’s going to make Jon Jones budge, so move on and demand the UFC gives you a fight against whoever. And if you congratulate Jones on a great career and a happy retirement, well, that wouldn’t be the worst idea.

And the second thing I’d do is call the UFC out over this nonsense. Aspinall is now the longest-reigning interim champion in UFC history and is fast approaching 600 days as interim champion. That is an objectively terrible look for the UFC, and it’s genuinely indefensible. They are actively hurting your legacy to kowtow to a man who may never fight again. Eff that. Stand up for yourself. I mean, what’s the worst they can do to you, make you sit? You’re already doing that. Start airing grievances because a vast majority of people know you’re in the right here, and make them do their friggin’ jobs.

The Next Great Rivalry

“Which two fighters do you think will form the next great UFC title fight rivalry?”

Man, this is a great question, but it also raised another for me: what is our most recent great rivalry? I guess the answer is Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya, but they only fought twice in MMA, and now it seems a third (fifth?) fight will never come. Still, that is probably the most recent big one because Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland definitely doesn’t count.

Anyway, as for the next great one, I think people wanted it to be Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, but I’m doubtful we get there. Those two still may end up fighting, but at this rate, it seems like it will be a one-time deal, winner-takes-all.

There’s a case for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley, if “Suga” can pull off the upset over Merab next month, but there’s also every chance that if that happens, the UFC tries to bury Merab and protect O’Malley, so I don’t know about that.

There are a lot of possible great rivalries at 170 right now, the hottest division in the sport, but that is also too hard to call. There are so many contenders right now its hard to imagine there being a lot of repeat business in the near future. So with that in mind, I’m willing one into existence: Dricus du Plessis and Reinier de Ridder.

It’s no secret that I have been one of the biggest supporters of both DDP and RDR for many years now, and we’re so close to these two beautiful violence weirdos getting matched up with one another. If RDR throttles Robert Whittaker later this year, he’s jumping the line at middleweight, and when DDP (that’s right, I said ‘when’) beats Khamzat Chimaev, we’re all set up for the best-worst middleweight fight you’ve ever seen. And if RDR wins, DDP has done enough to warrant an immediate rematch, meaning these two may well end up fighting a few times before it’s all said and done. At least, I hope.

Most Likely to Succeed

“Who do you think is the most likely fighter not currently ranked in the top 5 of their division to win a belt?”

There are a lot of really good options for this question, so much so that there are multiple people who qualify that I think will do it. So with that in mind, here’s a brief list by weight class of people in contention.

Flyweight: Joshua Van — He’s 23 years old, and awesome. If he continues to improve, he’s well set up to grab a gold eventually, though flyweight has many young hitters coming down the pipe.

Bantamweight: Patchy Mix — This is kind of cheating since Mix only just signed with the UFC and as a result doesn’t have a ranking, but yeah, he’s real good.

Featherweight: Jean Silva — I was enamored with “Lord” since his Contender Series performance, and nothing has changed my mind. Also, Kevin Vallejos, who is 23 and insanely talented, with shades of Ilia Topuria. That’s a dude to watch out for.

Lightweight: Paddy Pimblett. Ilia Topuria isn’t ranked at lightweight, so he qualifies, but setting that aside, Pimblett won me over. I wasn’t a big believer in him initially, but he continues to improve, and he’ll get plenty of chances.

Welterweight: Ian Machado Garry. Joaquin Buckley and Michael Morales are guys I would bet to fight for a title, but I’m less confident in their ability to win it. Garry gets a lot of hate but he’s a damn fine fighter and still super young.

Middleweight: RDR — Duh. But also Caio Borralho is legit.

Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight: Jailton Almeida? These weight classes are TERRIBLE.

As for the women’s weight classes, Mackenzie Dern is the only one who might do it, but that’s very questionable.

But if I had to pick one “best” option, give me Machado Garry. I’m just very, very certain that he will fight for a title at least once, and he’s a really great fighter, in a weight class where a lot of turnover might be coming.

Biggest Loser

“Which current UFC champion do you think is most likely to lose their belt next? Including whoever you predict to win the vacant lightweight belt.”

The oddsmakers suggest it’s Julianna Peña, and I tend to agree. Peña defends the women’s bantamweight belt against Kayla Harrison at UFC 316, and I think she’s about to get run over.

Then, circling back to the first question, I think Jones is eventually going to have to give up the belt, so he’s pretty likely for me as well. The same might be said of Zhang Weili, who appears headed up to 125 next, but for the time being, let’s not include these two.

Other than Peña, the champion I think most likely to lose their belt in the cage next is either Jack Della Maddalena or Alexander Volkanovski, depending on who defends their belt first. I’m sorry, Australia, that’s very rude of me, but it’s how I see things.

JDM will defend his belt against Islam Makhachev later this year, and while I wouldn’t bet the house on Islam, I do like his chances. Belal Muhammad gave Della Maddalena a hard go of it, and Islam is considerably better than Belal. He’s the best fighter on the planet for a reason, and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.

As for Volkanovski, his win over Diego Lopes was legitimately inspiring stuff. Being able to get high-level wins when you’re past your prime is the hallmark of true all-time greats. But that’s a fine line to walk. Volkanovski does not look to me like he’s in his apex form anymore, and while he got away with it against Lopes, I don’t know how much longer he can stave off Father Time.

Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who sent in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have any burning questions about things at least somewhat related to combat sports? Then you’re in luck because you can send your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I will answer all the good ones! It doesn’t matter if they’re topical or insane, just so long as they are good. Thanks again, and see y’all next week.