“Situational Analysis” is a series of articles that seeks to examine the circumstances that most often influence an NBA prospect’s success. Each player will be scored on a scale from 1-10 in four different categories: NBA-specific skill(s), fatal flaw(s), collegiate/overseas/pre-NBA environment, and ideal NBA ecosystem.
Cooper Flagg is an 18-year-old (!!!) wing from Newport, Maine, who averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists for the Duke Blue Devils. He is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. NBADraft.net, therefore, currently has him projected at No. 1.
NBA-Specific Skills
Cooper Flagg is really, really good at basketball. Like, really. Good, I mean. At basketball. All of it.
I wish I had sharper analysis here. But sometimes, you watch a kid – yes, kid who won’t turn 19 until December 21 – play basketball and there really isn’t much to add.
Flagg isn’t a perfect player. Nobody is. But few players his age come into the NBA draft with a higher floor. The things Flagg needs to hone – off-the-bounce shooting, tighter handle, off-hand finishing, consistent 3-point step-backs – are the skills that separate All Stars from potential MVPs. We’ll cover it in the next section.
What separates Flagg from his peers in this or pretty much any other draft? Simple. He never stops coming.
Flagg has the motor of a player on a 10-day contract trying to secure a second deal. There is a desperation to Flagg’s approach that we don’t often see from players who inked high-profile sneaker deals in college.
For as skilled and talented as he is as an offensive player, he enters the NBA as a potential wrecking ball on the wing defensively. This is remarkable, by the way. Most rookies are subpar defenders – even the ones taken for their defensive upside. Learning the nuances of professional defensive schemes against the best collection of offensive talent in the world is challenging for even top-notch defenders. Flagg will take his lumps, as all rookies do, but he won’t get played off the floor. If anything, Flagg will be given defensive assignments and responsibilities often reserved for veterans with 5-10 years of experience.
By the time Flagg hits his rookie extension, he will likely see his name etched in stone on the annual All-Defense teams.
Offensively, Flagg can fit seamlessly alongside high-usage players. He is already an A-level cutter and mover without the ball, and he rarely holds the ball longer than a second or two before making a move or swinging it to an open teammate. Things just flow better when Flagg is involved.
Throw in his game-changing transition ability and his tireless work ethic, and it’s hard to imagine a non-injury scenario where Flagg is anything other than one of the game’s best players.
On a scale from 1-10, Flagg’s mindset, motor, and mentality rate at a 10.
Fatal Flaws
I need to rename this section “nitpicks” in Flagg’s case. There is nothing here that resembles a catastrophic flaw or serious hindrance. We’re talking about skills that might make the difference between “multiple All-Star games” and “All-NBA First Team.”
Today’s NBA superstar – particularly if he plays on the wing – needs a step-back 3-pointer in the offensive toolkit. It’s the most un-guardable shot, and those who can convert it efficiently separate themselves from everyone else. After a slow-ish start to the season, Flagg bumped his 3pt% to 38.5%, but mostly on spot-up looks or transition opportunities. If Flagg adds an isolation step-back in the half-court to his already incredible skillset, forget it. It’s not there yet, however.
Flagg skeptics (a dwindling number, but they still exist) insist he is a high-level role player at best. They evaluate players on the number of crazy 3s they take or the kinds of ankle-breaking YouTube-ready dribble drives they create. Flagg is not that kind of player. Apologies to the social media coordinators or content aggregators of the world. You’ll have to settle for insane Flagg dunks in transition or chase-down blocks that seemed out of reach.
On a scale from 1 (not a concern) to 10 (serious hindrance), Flagg’s developing isolation 3-pointer is a 2.
Pre-NBA Setting
Draft obsessives have been hearing about Flagg for years. He turned heads when he proved he belonged on the court with elite NBA players when he kicked butt as a member of the Team USA Select Team, tasked with warming up Team USA prior to the 2024 Olympics.
Flagg has dominated at every level. He did whatever he wanted on the courts in Maine before transferring to a loaded Montverde Academy squad. He reclassified to get a jump on his collegiate career, which is why he is a year (or more) younger than most of his contemporaries. And we all know what he did at Duke last year.
On a scale from 1-10, Flagg’s pre-NBA career rates at a 9. It would rank a point higher had the Blue Devils not blown it in the Final Four.
Ideal NBA Ecosystem
Let’s make this quick: Every team would trade just about every asset that isn’t nailed down in exchange for Cooper Flagg. He fits into any offensive or defensive game plan, any coaching philosophy, any roster construction.
Let’s rephrase: Did the right team win the privilege of selecting Cooper Flagg? Obviously not. But is this a good growth opportunity for a potentially transformative NBA prospect? Honestly, it could be much worse.
Prior to the reshaped lottery odds, low-level organizations often squandered the potential of raw, unproven, but tantalizing lottery talent. Now, teams that narrowly missed postseason play often find themselves thrust upward in the lottery (though certain conspiracy theorists love to cast doubt on just how “random” these lottery odds really are).
Flagg heads to Dallas to step into the small forward position recently vacated by Luka Doncic in a trade that was smart and good and everyone agrees. Flagg will not have to carry a heavy offensive burden, as he likely would on a typical lottery squad like Utah or Washington. Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving (each when healthy) will allow Flagg to develop at his own pace and contribute exactly the sort of thing Jason Kidd expects from his wings – tenacious defense, transition excellence, secondary shot creation, etc. A front line of Flagg, AD, and Lively/Gafford is impossibly long, athletic, and formidable defensively.
That’s assuming Nico Harrison doesn’t hold the New Balance thing against him. Could Harrison really pass on Flagg or trade the pick? Anything is possible.
On a scale from 1-10, Flagg (10) is one of the most situationally independent draft prospects in years. Each team needs as many Cooper Flaggs as they can get.
