UFC Vegas 106 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 106. I’m not going to oversell this one: we’ve got exactly one relevant fight here, and it’s the five-round main event between fading Gilbert Burns and the surging Michael Morales, which seems to spell impending sadness for us “Durinho” fans (does that count as a prediction?). The rest of the card I would put into the sneakily fun category in that nobody is going to bust into the rankings, but these are all fighters I know well enough and trust to make for an entertaining night of combat.

Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event:

Light Heavyweight: Paul Craig (+380) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-500)

Best Win for Craig? Magomed Ankalaev For Bellato? Ihor PotieriaCurrent Streak: Craig has lost two in a row, while Bellato enters off a drawX-Factor: Craig’s confidence looks shotHow these two match up: I don’t expect this one to see the final bell.

Craig is a hilarious and inconsistent fighter. He’s an excellent jiu-jitsu player with no consistent way to take down opponents (seriously, his refusal to learn how to finish a double leg FOR A DECADE has been infuriating) and his kickboxing vacillates from awkward-but-dangerous to downright horrendous depending on the day.

Despite these flaws, he’s tapped out two future champions and multiple Top 10 fighters. Iconic!

Bellato is largely what one would expect from a 6’3” Light Heavyweight newcomer with 11 of 12 wins via stoppage. He’s powerful, aggressive, and just a little bit sloppy. Still, he showed a good deal of toughness and conditioning to fight his way back to a draw versus Jimmy Crute last time out, and those traits will go a long way in separating him from the 205-pound pack.

I’ll be honest: Paul Craig fights are always a crapshoot. He could lose 90% of this one then pull out a triangle, as he’s done half-a-dozen times. He could show up with a surge of inspiration, land a couple knees, and finish early via RNC. Or, he could just get dominated and knocked cold in short fashion.

The latter feels the most likely to me. On paper, there’s no reason Craig couldn’t have found similar success vs. Bo Nickal as Reinier de Ridder in his last appearance. He has similar skills, the elite BJJ and awkward clinch striking. Unfortunately, it feels like at 37 years of age, Craig didn’t believe in himself and accepted the decision loss early in the fight.

Bellato is going to punish any hesitancy in a much more extreme way.

Prediction: Bellator via knockout

Lightweight: Sodiq Yusuff (+114) vs. Mairon Santos (-135)

Best Win for Yusuff? Alex Caceres For Santos? Francis Marshall Current Streak: Yusuff has lost two in a row, whereas Santos is 2-0 inside the Octagon (but that Marshall decision was pretty iffy)X-Factor: Both men are moving up to 155-poundsHow these two match up: This should be an excellent fight.

Yusuff is a tricky and physical fighter with a well-rounded skill set. He climbed to the Featherweight rankings quickly but struggled when faced with Top 10 opposition … and it turns out that Diego Lopes guy is a pretty decent fighter! Perhaps his greatest issue has been consistency, as Yusuff has only fought nine times in his seven years on the roster.

Maybe a move up to Lightweight helps with the activity?

As for Santos, the 24-year-old Ultimate Fighter (TUF) champion is definitely a talented prospect. He’s a slick striker with composure beyond his years, and his takedown defense is definitely solid if not quite elite yet.

I’m a little surprised by the odds here. Yusuff has lost a couple fights, sure, but he was fighting an entirely different class of opposition than Santos. He’s going to be the significantly heavier fighter, and his combination of top-notch striking and really solid wrestling feels like it’ll allow him to maintain the driver’s seat. He’s in his prime at 31 years of age, whereas Santos is a young fighter who still has to grow.

Lastly, Santos is a technician, not a surging mauler like Lopes. As a result, Yusuff should be able to set a comfortable pace, landing the better shots and an occasional takedown or two en route to a clean decision win.

Prediction: Yusuff via decision

Middleweight: Nursulton Ruziboev (-298) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+240)

Best Win for Ruziboev? Brunno Ferreira For Stoltzfus? Marc-Andre BarriaultCurrent Streak: Both men won their last boutX-Factor: Stoltzfus isn’t particularly durableHow these two match up: This should be good fun!

Ruziboev is chaos. Highly experienced and with a bevy of quick finishes on his record, the 6’5” Middleweight is wildly aggressive on the feet and the canvas. He tends to win big quickly or fatigue and lose a decision, so weathering the storm is always a goal for his opposition.

I find Stoltzfus fascinating. He’s got some underrated technical skills, but physical limitations saw him lose more often than not in his early UFC career. His adjustment was to get way more aggressive and really force the issue, and … it’s sort of worked? After losing four of his first five, he’s now won two of his last three against solid middle-of-the-pack competition. He’s become something of a glass cannon rather than mere cannon fodder.

That’s improvement!

There’s a clear dynamic here. On one hand, Ruziboev’s length and power could immediately eliminate Stoltzfus. Alternatively, Stoltzfus survives a few of those shots, stings his foe in return, then takes over as soon as Ruziboev starts to fatigue.

As much as I enjoy weird Stoltzfus wins, I have to back the former. Ruziboev has the combination of experience and aggression that allows him to start very quickly with high accuracy. He jumps into the fray already dialed in, catching opponents cold routinely, and that’s a historical issue for Stoltzfus.

Prediction: Ruziboev via knockout

Featherweight: Julian Erosa (+162) vs. Melquizael Costa (-192)

Best Win for Erosa? Hakeem Dawodu For Costa? Christian RodriguezCurrent Streak: Both men have won three in a rowX-Factor: Erosa has a lot of milage How these two match up: This should be a BANGER!

Erosa plays a high-risk, high-reward game. He keeps his hands very low and relies on head movement, but he also aggressively stalks his opponents. On the canvas, Erosa is a deceptively excellent jiu-jitsu player, and his lankiness really helps him wrap up submissions.

All told, 26 of his 31 wins come via stoppage.

Costa has really surprised in the last 12 months after a 1-2 UFC start. The Brazilian prospect has really settled into his game, a rangy kick-focused attack. His takedown defense and stands up have come a long way in a short time as well, enabling him to be a much more effective scrapper.

Generally, there’s one real way to defeat Erosa, and it’s to knock him unconscious. If given time to work, his own power and experience come into play, and suddenly he’s a very tough man to beat. Unfortunately for Costa, I’m not sure he’s got the power to lay out “Juicy J.” The concern is that he’ll hide a high kick behind his punches (see the Alex Caceres defeat), but I’m figuring Erosa should be aware of that threat.

It’s also worth-mentioning that both men fought recently (Erosa on April 12, Costa on March 29), but Costa’s fight was an exhausting war compared to Erosa’s first round KO win. In another scrap, that could be the difference-maker!

Prediction: Erosa via decision

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