Why Florida Advances to Final Four
Florida enters the tournament as the hottest team in the country with health and momentum on their side. The Gators core of Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, Will Richard, Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, matches up with any team in the bracket favorably. Florida has proven themselves all year with quality wins over Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Missouri this season, all top-six seeds in the tournament. Florida comes into the tournament second to just Duke in odds to win the title. They dominated the SEC tournament, a conference that saw an NCAA record 14 of its 16 teams make the March Madness tournament. As they proved over the past few weeks, Florida has all the ingredients to reach San Antonio and potentially win it all.
Why Florida Gets Eliminated
Following a “warm up” in the Round of 64 with Norfolk State, Florida’s road becomes much more difficult. With potential matchups with (8) UConn, or (9) Oklahoma, and then (4) Maryland or (5) Memphis in the ensuing rounds, the path is no cake walk. UConn is dangerous with championship DNA and a conference opponent with an extremely talented young point guard (Oklahoma) could have the recipe to knock off Florida early. With a difficult draw, their competition figures to be formidable, with a road consisting of UConn, Maryland and Louisville, should favorites prevail. A legendary coach in Rick Pitino and Louisville (2) figure to be the Gators stiffest opponent, with Coach Pitino having a huge leg up on Florida coach Todd Golden in tournament experience. Like the old phrase goes, Styles make fights. Louisville plays a frenetic defensive style and potentially has the athletes and system to match up with the Gators, as well as a game plan to defeat them.
Sweet Sixteen Sleeper: Memphis Tigers
Winners of the AAC, the fifth-seeded Memphis Tigers’ best player is their shooting guard PJ Haggerty. This season, the sophomore guard averaged 21.8 points, which ranked 3rd in the entire country. Haggerty was also the team leader in assists, 3.8 per game, and steals, 1.8 per game. Complimenting him is senior bigman, Dain Dainja, who is a handful in the paint. He leads the team in rebounds per game at 7.2. Memphis has two additional high level performers, with double-digit scorers Tyrese Hunter (13.7 PPG) and Colby Rogers (10.4 PPG). Getting penetration to the rim against Memphis is a challenge, as Moussa Cisse (team leader at 1.6 BPG) patrols the paint Tigers’ Coach Penny Hardaway. 29 wins this season set a new career mark. Memphis starts out the tournament against (12) Colorado State on Friday at 2 p.m. CSU is the narrow favorite, but I don’t see Memphis being one and done. With a win, they’d face one of (4) Maryland or (13) Grand Canyon. While Maryland’s Derik Queen is one of the nation’s better players, Maryland potentially lacks the supporting cast to match up with Memphis in the 2nd round.
Final Four Sleeper: Texas Tech Red Raiders
My Final Four sleeper from this region is No. 3 seed Texas Tech, who was very close to winning the Big 12, but fell 86-80 to Arizona in the semifinals. Had they beaten Arizona, they would have given Houston a challenge in the championship. To advance in this tournament, you need a good core, and the Red Raiders have that. Sophomore forward JT Toppin is the team’s energy big and best player; he’s averaging 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks on the season and is the team leader in all three of those categories. Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian both average 14+ PPG. Grant McCasland is in his second year as the Red Raiders’ coach and has made the NCAA tournament both years; losing in the Round of 64 last year. They start out the tournament against 14-seed UNC Wilmington, and that’s a very favorable match up for Texas Tech, because it’s UNCW’s first tournament appearance. Texas Tech would face Missouri or Drake next, and while tough opponents, will be favorites to wins. Getting through the gauntlet of both St John’s and Florida won;t be easy, but this is an athletic, well coached and talented team with a punchers chance.
Top First Round Matchup: (7) Kansas vs. (10) Arkansas
Kansas vs. Arkansas features a historic coaching matchup between the Jayhawks’ Bill Self and Razorbacks’ John Calipari. This will be the first Round of 64 matchup ever between head coaches with 50+ NCAA Tournament wins. This is also the first Round of 64 matchup between coaches that previously met in the National Championship; Self’s Kansas team defeated Calipari’s Memphis team for the title in 2008, and Calipari’s Kentucky team defeated Self’s Kansas team in the 2012 final. Calipari is 57-22 in March Madness with six Final Four appearances and one title. Self is 57-23 in tournament play, with four Final Four appearances and two titles. As far as the rosters go, Arkansas has three active double-digit scorers in Adou Thiero, Johnell Davis and D.J. Wagner, but Thiero has missed the past six games due to injury. Kansas only has two, Hunter Dickinson and Zeke Mayo, but Dickinson is viewed as the top player in the matchup. Both teams underperformed this year and have a lot on the line, but both have a chance to right their wrongs and win this notable matchup. The game is slated for Thursday night at 7:10 p.m.
Top Potential Player Matchup: PJ Haggerty vs. Walter Clayton Jr. (Sweet Sixteen)
if both teams win, Memphis would face Florida in the Sweet Sixteen. Haggerty is one of the top scorers in the country, Haggerty and Memphis have faced some good teams this year but they have not played a team the caliber of Florida. They are led by tough and athletic point guard Walter Clayton Jr. His 17.5 points ranked 1st on Florida and 6th in the SEC and his 4.3 assists are tied for 4th in the SEC. He also ranked 3rd in the SEC in three-pointers made per game at 2.9. Clayton Jr. is also on a tear recently, scoring at least 20 points in four of his last five games. Like Clayton Jr., Haggerty is on fire lately, including a 42-point performance against Wichita State. Both players have come up clutch for their teams all year which would make for a highly exciting match up.
Top Under the Radar Matchup: (6) Missouri vs. (11) Drake
While not considered a marquee matchup,however it probably should be. In reality, this is a brutal draw for Missouri. The six-seeded Tigers went 22-11 this season, while eleven-seed Drake went 30-3 and won the MVC. Drake’s top player is a two-way star in junior guard Bennett Stirtz, who averaged a team-high 19.1 points, 5.7 assists and 2.2 steals. Another player to watch is sophomore forward Cam Manyawu, who posted a team-best 5.4 rebounds and 0.7 blocks. Daniel Abreu, the Bulldog’s other double-digit scorer, recorded 10.4 points per game. Their first-year coach, Ben McCollum has proven he knows how to win, having won four Division II titles (2017, 2019, 2021, 2022). The Tigers have a guard trio who can affect the outcome on any given night. Duke transfer Mark Mitchell averages 14.1 points, Caleb Grill averages 13.7 and Tamar Bates averages 13.4. While that’s a great nucleus, Missouri is pretty top heavy, with their next scorer (Anthony Robinson III) posting 9.2 points. This game should be an exciting one, but watch out for Drake. The Bulldogs are clearly capable of pulling off the upset.
Top 5: NBA Prospects from the Region
1. Jeremiah Fears, Fr., G, Oklahoma
Fears has been playing as well as any freshman in the country of late. having scored 29 and 28 in back to back SEC tournament games, facing Kentucky and Georgia respectively. Fears has the ability to get by opponents and score and distribute on drives. Teams will look to play off Fears and force him to score from the perimeter where he knocks down just 27% from three. Led by a freshman playing at such a high level, the Sooners were be a tough out for both UConn and Florida, if they reach them.
2. Boogie Fland, Fr., G, Arkansas
Fland was one of the best freshman guards in the country prior to his hand injury on January 11. In 18 games this season, he averaged 15.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.1 blocks on 39.1/36.5/83.9 shooting splits. The good news for Fland and college basketball fans is that he should be back for the tournament. According to ESPN’s Jeff Borzello, Fland is in line to be available, unless he experiences a setback. Fland’s playmaking skills would be a big boost for Arkansas and could help cement his status as a top pick this summer.
3. Derik Queen, Fr., C, Maryland
The Terrapins’ leading scorer posts 16.3 points, 9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks. The 6’10 Baltimore native is a force to be reckoned with and displayed that with 31 points and 2 blocks in Maryland’s Big Ten semifinal loss to Michigan. His presence will be a challenge for first round opponent Grand Canyon and any future opponents to handle. His skill set with the ability to pass and create baskets both face up and in the paint gives him a lot of intrigue for the next level.
4. JT Toppin, So., F, Texas Tech
The aforementioned Toppin is a star in the making for the Red Raiders. He averages 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 1.3 blocks each night for Texas Tech. While his shooting splits are down from his freshman year, his point per game total is almost six points higher, and that’s across a smaller sample size. He scored 26 points against Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals. While he had a down game against Arizona in the Big 12 semis, I expect him to get back on track for the NCAA tournament.
5. Liam McNeeley, Fr., F, UConn
McNeeley is a solid freshman on Dan Hurley’s squad. He averages 14.5 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists on 39.1% shooting from the field and 33.3% from three-point range. An area of McNeeley’s game that really stands out is his free-throw shooting. He’s made 99 of his 115 attempts from the charity stripe this season, which is 86.1%. That could be used to their advantage in their tournament games. Despite UConn having a down year, they remain dangerous, with McNeeley being a big part of their tournament potential as they look to embrace the role of Cinderella, this year, and make another run.
Honorable Mention
.Solo Ball, So., G, UConn
The second UConn player, with a 6’10 wingpan the 6’3 Solo Ball plays bigger than his height. Ball posts 14.6 points per game but shoots the ball well from the perimeter. He knocked down 44.4% from the field, 42.2% from downtown and 84% from the free-throw line. If UConn is trailing in some games, getting the ball to Ball’s hands can help them to stay in games, and potentially help knock out a team like Florida in the second round.…
