Why Auburn Advances:
Auburn, the number one overall seed, has been the most complete, most accomplished team for the vast majority of the season. They conquered a conference that saw 14 of its 16 teams make the tournament, including 6 that received a top 4 seed (including Auburn). Simply put, they had a hell of a season. Led by one of the favorites for National Player of the Year, Johni Broome (pictured), they boast top end talent, but even managed to find team success when he was out dealing with injuries throughout the season. They are extremely efficient on both ends of the court, and have shown the ability to win both high scoring and low scoring games. That kind of versatility can pay major dividends in a tournament like this one.
Why Auburn gets Eliminated:
Of their five losses this season, three have come in their last four games. Between their non-conference schedule and their SEC slate, they played 11 games against teams that ended up getting a top 4 seed in the tournament. Their record in those games? 6-5 with a positive point differential of only +3. Despite being the presumptive top overall seed for much of the season, this is not an unbeatable team. In addition, Johni Broome has battled injuries all season, and while he has largely been available for their games, it’s always possible that he goes down, and if that happens, the Tigers don’t have a ton of depth, as Dylan Cardwell is the only established big man behind him.
Sweet 16 Sleeper: North Carolina Tar Heels
Do I believe that North Carolina deserved a spot in the tournament? Absolutely not. Does that mean they can’t make some noise? Also no. Most years there is a team that comes out of the first four to make a run. This year, that team could be North Carolina. They had a poor season and struggled against good teams. However, they’ve been playing their best basketball of late, and were a bizarre lane violation away from possibly beating Duke in the ACC Tournament. Since the start of February, their only losses have come to Clemson and Duke, and the bracket could potentially break in their favor. Their first four game pits them against San Diego State in a game that will feature clashing styles, but if the Tar Heels’ offense can overcome the Aztec defense, they would face off against a beatable Ole Miss team next. From there, they would potentially end up facing a three seed in Iowa State that announced on Selection Sunday that Keshon Gilbert (their assist leader and second leading scorer) would not be available for the tournament. From undeserving of a bid to a Sweet 16 team is a surprisingly realistic outcome for the Tar Heels.
Final Four Sleeper: Creighton Bluejays
When you enter the tournament as a 9 seed, you know that you aren’t going to have an easy path to the Sweet 16, much less the Final Four. However, Creighton finds themselves with a really tough path to make it deep into the tournament. They start off with a game against a Louisville squad that had no business being an 8 seed (more on that in a moment), and with a win would be staring down the #1 overall seed. So, why are they still considered a dark horse for the Final Four? They matchup well with the teams in their bracket. Ryan Kalkbrenner has enough gravity inside to open up things for Bluejay shooters Jackson McAndrew and Steven Ashworth outside. Louisville really struggles when the other team is hitting from outside. Against Auburn, Kalkbrenner has the size to give Broome trouble. From there, the bracket could go a number of ways, but at that point, there is nobody that would seem to matchup especially well with Creighton, opening a path to a Final Four in which their two toughest games are their first two.
Top First Round Matchup: 8 Louisville vs. 9 Creighton
When the South Region was revealed, one of the first things that caught my eye was the shot of Louisville’s players celebrating as their team was announced. Because I was shocked they were seeded so low, my eyes immediately went to Pat Kelsey to see his reaction. He was clearly confused and upset. I don’t blame him, Louisville has only lost two games this calendar year, and while the ACC was putrid, Louisville largely beat the teams put in front of it. Despite constant injury problems, the team has come together and managed to win games while guard Chucky Hepburn became an all-conference performer and potential All-American. From what I’ve said above, you can probably tell that I’m picking Creighton to win this matchup, but it is well within the realm of possibility that Louisville knocks them off in round 1. Louisville was 13th in the AP Poll, and yet got an 8 seed, so they will come into this game with something to prove. Seeing the 23rd and 37th ranked teams at KenPom square off this early in the tournament should be a good one.
Top Potential Player Matchup: Johni Broome & Ryan Kalkbrenner, Round 2
Broome has been elite this season, and could very well end up winning National Player of the Year honors. He was the leading rebounder in the SEC as well as the second leading scorer in the conference. Meanwhile, Kaklbrenner did the same in the Big East. Kalkbrenner also has led the Big East in blocks three years running. At 6-10, 235 pounds, Broome is a big man that can play an inside out game, using his mixture of size, savvy and athleticism to exploit matchups. Kalkbrenner stands seven feet tall, 235 pounds and is also comfortable outside as a spot up shooter (33.3% on the year). These two legitimately awesome college players could find themselves squaring off in round two. Will the agility of Broome come out on top, or will it be the strength and power of Kalkbrenner. Hopefully we get the opportunity to find out.
Top Under the Radar Matchup: 4 Texas A&M vs. 13 Yale
Texas A&M is a team built on hard work, grit, and a whole lot of offensive rebounding. They can pound teams on the glass and then on the other end, harass them into turnovers for easy buckets. Wade Taylor IV is their engine on offense, leading them in scoring and assists. What makes this game so intriguing to me is the fact that Yale is so protective of their possessions. They rarely turn the ball over, meaning that the Aggies may struggle to get easy baskets in transition. If that’s the case, the game will become more about execution on the offensive end. Yale shoots an absurd 38.8% from three as a team, but they hardly take any. Despite de-emphasizing the three, they are still the 24th best scoring offense in the country. A&M is more of a defensive-oriented team. This will likely not be the prettiest game of the first weekend, but it will be intriguing to see two teams that approach the game differently attempt to counter each other. Expect this game to come down to the chess game that will be the coaching matchup between Buzz Williams and James Jones.
Top 5 NBA Prospects in the region:
1. Jase Richardson, Michigan StateThe son of former NBA player and dunk champion Jason Richardson, Jase has really come into his own as the season has progressed. To begin the year, he was more of a role player, getting a handful of opportunities to show what he could do each game. However, starting in early February in a game against Oregon, Tom Izzo turned him loose, and he has more than answered the call. In that game, he played 35 minutes, scored 29 points, and hasn’t looked back. Since then, he has been a focal point of the offense, averaging over 17 points per game. A good outside shooter (41.2%), he’s also shown the ability to create looks for others as well. He’s quite possibly the best pro prospect in this region.
2. Ian Jackson, North Carolina
Another talented young guard, Jackson has shown flashes of being a high profile scorer as well as an efficient scorer. He has struggled with consistency, but when he is on, he is difficult to stop. His best game was arguably a contest against a really good Alabama team and he put together a 23-5-5 line (albeit in a loss). He also had 27-6-6 against Notre Dame, and 26-5-5 against Campbell. On the flip side, he’s had 15 total points over his last four games, so there’s still room for him to become more consistent and grow his game.
3. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn
Broome may be the best college player on Auburn, but their best NBA prospect is likely freshman Tahaad Pettiford. Just looking at his stats, he won’t blow you away, averaging 11 points, 2.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists. However, when you watch him, you can see his skill level exceeds the numbers. He is a talented shooter than can make some really difficult looks. He is able to create offense on his own, while being able to finish above the rim despite his 6 foot 1 size. He is more of a combo guard and at his size, that could hold him back, but his ability to score the basketball gives him a solid shot at carving out a role at the next level.
4. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
I don’t want to beat a dead horse and I’ve said a lot about him already. He’s big, he’s strong, he has good foot work, he can shoot, and he will block shots. He’s older, but I think he can carve out a role as a rotational big at the next level as a shot blocker and floor spacer in a role similar to that of Brook Lopez.
5. Danny Wolf, Michigan
The second leading scorer and top rebounder for the Big Ten champs, is a big man that moves well, which allows the Wolverines to play two bigs. What is appealing about Wolf to NBA teams is the fact that he has the shooting ability to stretch the floor on offense while having the mobility to move and defend in pick and roll situations. Because he can do a little bit of everything, it is not difficult to envision him carving out a role on an NBA team. He may not be a star at any one aspect of his game, but he is the total package and because he moves well at his size, he could be a guy that sneaks into the back of round one on draft night.
