For 68 Division I basketball teams, Selection Sunday is a brief moment of celebration before embarking on what could be a two-plus-week journey to the NCAA Final Four. For most other teams, it’s a sobering moment of reflection. Perhaps a reminder of what could have been had things gone a little bit better over the winter months.
However, this Selection Sunday was especially cruel for three teams in particular. One snub has already been deemed so egregious that it’s commanded attention from a high-level government official. On the flip side, a deserving team being left out usually means an undeserving team made the cut. While last season was a genuine case of a handful of bid-stealers sending would-be tournament teams to the NIT, this season felt like confirmation of the belief that the tie goes to the blue blood in bubble scenarios. Shout out to Tom Crean for that adage.
Without further adieu, here are the three biggest NCAA Tournament snubs and the three teams who should have been left out of the field in their place.
3 Teams That Should Be Dancing
1. West Virginia (19-13, 10-10 Big 12)
West Virginia’s exclusion from the NCAA Tournament field was exceptionally egregious and a legitimate shock. As BNN Bronco Nation reporter Nathan Carroll pointed out on X, 111 projected brackets in Bracket Project’s BracketMatrix had West Virginia in the field, marking the first time a team that was unanimously projected as “in” ended up missing the field.
The Mountaineer’s exclusion from the NCAA Tournament has ruffled so many feathers in the State of West Virginia that Gov. Patrick Morrisey held a special press session to address the snub. Standing at a podium draped in signage that read “National Corrupt Athletic Association”, Morrissey called West Virginia’s omission from The Big Dance a “miscarriage of justice” and robbery at the highest levels.
While West Virginia did themselves no favors with a 4-3 record against Quad 2 opponents, the reality is it performed so strongly against its best opponents that it warranted a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Mountaineers earned four Quad 1A wins over ranked opponents in Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State and went 6-10 overall. Compared to a few teams who did end up making the field, their exclusion was inexcusable.
2. Indiana (19-13, 10-10 Big Ten)
An abysmal 2-10 stretch in the bulk of the Hoosiers’ Big 10 schedule is likely what ended up keeping the Hoosiers out of the tournament, but a 4-13 record against Quad 1 opponents was again better than a certain blue blood that made the field. While the Hoosiers’ midseason stumble left them with an ugly streak of losses, the reality behind those losses was that every single one came against a Quad 1 opponent.
Indiana went 15-0 against the rest of their schedule, earning non-conference wins against South Carolina, Providence and USC. The Hoosiers were ranked 48th in KenPom, higher than at-large selections such as Vanderbilt and Utah State. Indiana had the 28th toughest schedule in the country and the 174th best luck rating in the country according to KenPoms metrics, which shows that it did what it was supposed to do with its schedule. Indiana could have bolstered its case by finishing the job against Quad 1 foes Michigan and UCLA, but its resume was strong enough to warrant inclusion when compared to other teams in the field.
3. Boise State (24-10, 14-6 Mountain West)
Boise State ended the season as one of the hottest teams in the country, but it entered the Mountain West title game on the cusp of the Last Four In. Unfortunately, that title game saw Nique Clifford and Colorado State comfortably down the Broncos for the second time in as many weeks. It’s hard to hold those losses against Boise State, however, as Colorado State is legitimately piping hot going into the tourney and is a prime candidate to make a deep run even as a 12 seed given its current shape.
The Broncos won nine of their last 11 games to end the regular season, but disappointing non-conference losses to Quad 3 Washington State and Quad 4 Boston College certainly didn’t help their case. It would have also done wonders for Boise State to win that matchup with Colorado State at the end of the regular season, as you have to imagine that going 0-2 to a fellow bubble team did little to improve its at-large chances. It’s hard to feel too much sympathy for Boise State given its losses, but the Broncos did go 3-6 against Quad 1A opponents. That’s a very fair mark for a Mountain West team. Still, you have to wonder if Boise State’s historic lack of tournament success contributed to the committee’s decision to leave them out of the field.
3 Teams Who Shouldn’t Be In
1. North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 ACC)
A few times in this article, I’ve made indirect references to the unnamed blue blood that made it into the tournament despite an incomparable record against Quad 1 opponents. You may have already known where that was headed, but let it be a mystery no more. The North Carolina Tar Heels made it into this year’s NCAA Tournament field on brand recognition alone, as there is simply no other plausible explanation for the inclusion of a team that went 1-12 against Quad 1 opponents.
Maybe North Carolina’s comeback against Cooper Flagg-less Duke in the ACC semifinals gave the committee some extra motivation to put them in the field, but the reality was that it was an entirely uninspiring effort to go down 20+ points in that game to begin with. While the Tar Heels do have strong advanced metrics and a 21-1 record against Quad 2-4 opponents, it’s nearly impossible to justify their inclusion over West Virginia, Indiana and even Boise State given those team’s much better performance against the cream of their schedule.
2. Texas (19-15, 6-12 SEC)
I probably shouldn’t have been so shocked to see Texas in the field, considering the strength of the SEC and more importantly the strength of the Longhorns’ brand. Still, Texas didn’t have the non-conference resume to justify its inclusion in the field with how poorly it performed against the top of the SEC this season. Texas should have been in a different boat than Oklahoma, who dominated a reasonably strong non-conference schedule before its SEC struggles took hold. It turns out the committee gave very little distinction to those two situations after all.
Texas went 7-10 against Quad 1 teams, beating just three opponents who were ranked in the latest edition of the AP Poll. While the Longhorns’ Quad 1 record justified inclusion in the NCAA Tournament, their Quad 2 record simply did not as they went just 3-5 in those games. Texas’ +17.15 efficiency margin was worse than another notable snub in Ohio State and the Longhorns lost their season opener to the Buckeyes, to boot. Considering Ohio State wasn’t even one of the three most deserving snubs, it’s hard to fathom how a Texas team with a resume just as questionable was able to sneak in with a head-to-head loss.
3. Xavier (21-11, 13-7 Big East)
Xavier’s 45th ranking in NET and 43rd ranking in KenPom somewhat justifies the Musketeers’ inclusion in the dance. On the flip side, their 1-9 record against Quad 1 opponents and a lone victory over a currently ranked team does not. Xavier’s 13-7 finish in Big East play holds far less weight when you consider just one of those wins came against UConn, Creighton or St. John’s and it becomes downright worrysome when you consider one of those losses came to a Georgetown program that’s still crawling its way back from the depths of irrelevance.
Xavier’s best non-conference wins came against a South Carolina team that was nowhere near an at-large bid and a Wake Forest team that let their bid fly away with a disappointing stretch in the last two weeks. The Musketeers also had a less-than-impressive Quad 2 non-conference loss to TCU that should have been scrutinized more, especially when you consider the fact Indiana went unbeaten in its Quad 2-4 games while having an extra Quad 1 win against a better schedule. It’s hard to reconcile with Xavier’s inclusion when Indiana was left out.
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