Why Houston Advances:
Two years ago, I covered this exact region and the top seed that year was also Houston. Good news; their recipe is exactly the same. Houston has become synonymous with a hyper-aggressive hedging and blitzing defense. They apply ball pressure more than maybe any other team in college hoops. They also only allow 58.5 points per game to opponents, second lowest in the country. The Cougars scheme has been about attacking the opponent offense for many years now, and this roster might be the most refined version of that game plan we’ve seen from them yet. They ended the season on a 13-game win streak and comfortably got through the BIG12 tournament in route to their fourth consecutive 30-win season. They’re second in the country via the AP poll and 5th in the country in point differential. Milos Uzan (pictured) has turned into the perfect defensive oriented transfer and continues to elevate his impact and lead the charge. Barring injury, their defense will feel apocalyptic to opponents and should let them plow through teams in route to their first Final Four in four years.
Why Houston is Eliminated:
There’s a few scenarios where a Houston early exit wouldn’t be surprising. The first is injuries. We all remember in 2023 when injuries to Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead almost caused the Cougars to lose in the first round to 16-seeded Northern Kentucky and actually lose to Miami in the Sweet Sixteen. If injuries plague their lead guards again, and we see a Houston team missing someone like Emmanuel Sharp or L.J. Cryer, then we could see a ghost of 2023 past kind of repetition. Another scenario is Houston’s defense not being able to make up for their lack of offensive firepower. Despite having that defensive prowess, they still have a –5 turnover ratio and have struggled against teams that have great offenses. A second-round matchup with Georgia, a fast-paced and high scoring team, could spell disaster for Houston. A third reason could be mental warfare. Houston has notoriously been labeled as chokers in March. They’re always a one seed and haven’t made a national championship yet in the Kelvin Sampson era. The Cougars will need mental fortitude, health and good matchups on their side to ride that defense to the Final Four.
Sweet 16 Sleeper: McNeese Cowboys
Nobody is hotter than the Cowboys right now. After a pretty mediocre first 10 games of the season, they’ve won 22 of their last 23. Their secret recipe has been a switch-heavy defense that interrupts a lot of opponents’ offensive actions. They haven’t allowed teams to get into their sets and have thrown in blitzes and stunts to confuse opponent ballhandlers. Like Houston, they rely heavily on their defensive energy to get wins. Like Houston, they don’t have one deadly scorer to rely on in the halfcourt. They lost Providence transfer Alyn Breed to a knee injury two games into the season and have been without his scoring all season. However, they haven’t really needed it. They’re top 25 in the country in steals per game and 12th in the country in point differential. What they lack in star power they make up for with great team play and have an almost 10-man rotation. Of course, this rotation might be shortened in March, but a team that plays aggressive defense and can play a lot of guys is dangerous, especially when they’ve won almost 23 straight games.
Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky Wildcats
Can a three-seed be a sleeper? In this case, I think so. The story of this Wildcat team is interesting. We all know the story of the offseason, as Coach Cal left the Wildcats after a long tenure as the head of one of the most prestigious blue bloods in the country. His departure was interesting to say the least. Some cheered, others booed, but ultimately the Wildcats are inevitable. It wasn’t Cal making this a desired destination for prospects, it was the history of the team. So what was left to Wildcat fans? Well, in Mark Pope’s first year at the helm he’s led the team back to the tournament. They finished the season ranked 15th in the country but ended their season in a blowout loss to the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide. I like this team because of one simple fact: they can get scorching hot from deep. The Wildcats are one of few teams to shoot better from three on pull-ups than spot-ups. The ball-handling and creation ability from guys like Otega Oweh and Jaxson Robinson is a scary sight. Not to mention them having six guys averaging over 10 points a game. There’s a formula where these top six guys go nuclear and meet Houston in the Elite Eight, and beat Houston’s on-ball pressure with better on-ball offense.
Top First Round Matchup: Utah State v. UCLA
The main intrigue with this game is more about playstyle than it is about the players on the team. Utah State uses off-ball screens more than almost any other team, and they shoot almost 40% on threes attempted off those screens. Their playstyle is a lot about waiting for a screen to develop, sprinting off of it, and nailing a triple. UCLA on the other hand loves to double in the post and on ball. It’ll be interesting to see if these strategies create any advantages or if they meet in the middle and negate each other. Will UCLA employ doubles at the top of they key or on the wings to stop the pass from reaching a flaring shooter? Or will Utah State be able to pick apart their defense with open looks from deep. There’s also the question of sustainability. March Madness is unlike any other tournament in the sports world due to it’s dependency on luck. One bad shooting night will derail a team, if Utah State goes cold and UCLA uses their superior athleticism it could spell a blowout win for the Bruins… or Utah State could rain hellfire down and be blazing hot. Keep an eye out for the way these playstyles clash, it’ll be an interesting watch.
Top Potential Player Matchup: Braden Smith v. Ryan Nembhard (Sweet 16)
Two of the best point guards in the country, head-to-head in the Sweet 16, both representing schools with shaky March histories would be a cinematic duel in the 3rd round of this tournament. These guys both stand 6’0 tall and both drive their teams respective offenses through their playmaking ability. I think another narrative here is Nembhard being left off of the Bob Cousy award finalists list. That snub might provide a little more edge to his game. He broke his own assist record this season at Gonzaga and had one of the best assist seasons in the history of college basketball. The guy can dish it. On the other side, Braden Smith is a much more well-rounded player. Smith was the BIG10 player of the year, making him the third straight Boilermaker to win the award (Edey back-to-back). Both of their playmaking abilities and three-point shooting ability will make for a dazzling showdown between one star who’s been praised all year, and another who’s been snubbed. I’d say it’s like David verse Goliath but, they’re both only 6 feet tall.
Top Under the Radar Matchup: Houston v. SIUE
Look, it probably won’t happen. I don’t think SIUE will beat Houston this year. But, if they did, I can’t say I’d be COMPLETELY shocked. There’s an underlying matchup here that pits one player, who is the best in his school’s history, against a vaunted defense that wanted to suffocate you. Enter Ray’Shawn Taylor. Taylor is averaging 19 a game for the Cougars and was the OVC player of the year. He’s the 5th leading scorer in the school’s history with 20 less games played than the first-place player (Jason Holmes). Again, I’m not saying it’s probable, but this is the under the radar section, and no one has talked about this guy all year! I implore you to watch tape on him, he’s an electric scorer and the team around him knows how to play together. HIs backcourt partner Brian Taylor is nothing to snob at either, he shoots 47% from three on almost 90 attempts this season. It’s not impossible, is all I’m saying. Keep your eyes peeled from Taylor, he might be the most electric scorer in this entire region.
Top 5 Prospects in the Region:
5. Koby Brea, Kentucky Wildcats
It feels like this is the first time in many years there isn’t a Kentucky player projected to land in the top 10, but Brea isn’t a bad prospect by any means. He gives flashes of Duncan Robinson or Mike Miller with his catch and shoot prowess, and slow methodical style of downhill attack. The Dayton transfer is a career 44% shooter from deep on 5 attempts a game. Most NBA front offices will take a chance on a guy like that.
4. Wil Riley, Illinois Fighting Illini
Riley has come off the bench for many games this season, but his slim 6’8 frame and smoothness of course has drawn comparisons to the likes of Jayson Tatum and Kevin Durant. He’s got good shooting touch and a clean, very vertical, jumpshot. His length and ballhandling has put him at the forefront of a lot of draft talks, in the late first round area, but the intangibles are there.
3. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois Fighting Illini
The 6’6 Lithuanian freshman is what most people see as the prototypical European prospect. His game is refined, he has a clean jumper and an astute level of craftiness downhill. He can get blazing hot and score in huge chunks, but also has shown excellent playmaking instincts when attacking downhill on kickouts and dump offs. As most European prospects are, the defense leaves a bit to be desired, but his compact 200 lb frame will help him compete in the NBA.
2. Asa Newell, Georgia Bulldogs
Newell reminds me a lot of Andre Jackson from UConn a few years ago. He’s an athletic freak and a great vertical spacer. Off the roll, he’s always a threat, but catching the ball off of a denied screen he can just as easily attack downhill. The freshman has great lateral quickness and was huge for Georgia on defense all year (1 spg & 1 bpg). The jumper leaves a lot to be desired, but his development as a freshman has been quick. I see no reason why a professional training room won’t cause that jumper to reach a desired level of productivity.
1. Tre Johnson, Texas Longhorns
The 6’6 freshman will be playing Tuesday to make it into the tournament, and I highly suggest tuning in. He’s electric with the ball in his hands. He has no problem shooting over people and has great length and instincts off the catch. His jumper is smooth, athleticism isn’t in the highest percentile but it’s pretty dang good. He’s a lock for a top-5 pick and will immediately impact any team’s backcourt tremendously with his scoring (20 ppg) and two-way impact.
