What can two games in the middle of March tell you about how NBA MVP voters are going to approach (what is supposed to be) an 82-game award?
These two games in question told us a little bit of nothing, and a little bit of everything.
On Sunday and Monday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder hosted Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets. The race for this year’s NBA MVP award is down to these two players – no disrespect to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, or anyone else who is technically eligible. These two games were supposed to provide clarity on what has turned into a razor-thin race between two spectacular superstars with two very different “narratives” in this race.
SGA supporters got everything they needed after OKC’s 127-103 drubbing of the Nuggets on Sunday. Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 40 in 35 minutes, going 13-21 inside the arc (ignore the 2-11 from 3) and 8-8 from the line in a Kobe-inspired mid-range master class. It was a nip-and-tuck game going into the fourth quarter, when SGA (typically seated during most final quarters) erupted and slammed the door on a sluggish Denver squad, clearly still caught in the haze of Friday’s overtime win over the Suns.
Jokic, meanwhile, had one of his rougher outings of his incredible 2024-2025 season (rough for Jokic still means 24/13/9). He struggled a bit with the combined length/physicality of Isaiah Hartenstein and a fired-up Chet Holmgren and didn’t control every second of the action the way in which Denver fans have grown accustomed (spoiled?) these last few seasons.
Advantage SGA. How would Jokic respond?
Easy – 35/18/8 and a conductor’s control over his orchestra en route to a 140-127 win over the best team in the Western Conference and the league’s No. 1 defense. SGA was held to 25 points (“held to” haha) but posted a minus-18 in 36 minutes.
Advantage Jokic.
Every fanbase had their preconceptions verified and challenged in equal measure. Both players proved exactly what makes them special in a two-game snapshot of a 65-game sample.
If these two games couldn’t provide any additional clarity, what can we expect to see when media members start casting ballots at the end of the season?
SGA is going to win, but Jokic will have had a better individual season.
SGA’s case is simple – he’s the best guy on the best team. He’s the engine, the fulcrum, the sun, the alpha, and the omega of this relentless Oklahoma City attack. He’s posting prime Michael Jordan scoring stats on high efficiency. He is this team’s offensive and defensive identity. They are likely going to win 60-plus games and be the favorites to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.
He’s really good.
Jokic is just, well, better. It’s no slight to SGA – Jokic is having a season that compares to the best seasons by an individual player in the history of the sport. It’s the kind of season Wilt Chamberlain would have playing against a bunch of guys a foot shorter than him.
Jokic is challenging for basketball’s triple crown, with top three positions in points/rebounds/assists, alongside “is this computer broken?” efficiency stats. He is the sport’s greatest force multiplier, adding 10-15% effectiveness to any decent teammate you give him.
The biggest argument on SGA’s behalf (team success) has been slightly mitigated by Denver’s charge toward the No. 2 seed. SGA’s MVP case is bolstered by the truly remarkable Sam Presti, who’s work as Oklahoma City’s general manager has surrounded him with the best collection of young talent in the league – with more on the way. Jokic, meanwhile, has kept this Nuggets roster afloat through sheer force of will and basketball IQ. He kept the ship sailing while Jamal Murray shook off a brutal summer, Aaron Gordon got healthy, and Russell Westbrook found his new home.
This will likely not matter in the eyes of the voters, many of whom have gotten tired of writing Jokic’s name at the top of their ballot. He already has three – with his fourth going to Joel Embiid over similar voter fatigue issues. Sports awards like these are much like the Oscars – sometimes a compelling narrative triumphs over a superior performance. It happens all the time.
If SGA wins (which I expect him to) it will not be a travesty. He will be a fully deserving winner whose MVP campaign just happened to come at the same time as historic greatness. Fans will end up looking back on this season years from now wondering why voters awarded Jokic three previous times, but not for his best season.
Awards are funny like that. I just feel fortunate to see both of these players at this point in their careers performing at this level. It’s rare air.
And 1’s
• Selection Sunday is coming up, which means we’re in the thick of conference tournament season. Dozens of teams from every level of college hoops are fighting for entry into the 68-team field. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark recently stated he hopes to see the field expand to 76. Hey, why not? Let’s get every SEC team in there instead of only 12-13. Let’s expand it to G-League teams. Let’s turn every bracket into the most complicated schematic this side of “A Beautiful Mind.” Go nuts.
• The women’s tourney is wide open this year – well, as “wide open” as women’s college hoops ever gets. Each year, it’s usually one ultra-dominant team trying to fend off challenges from a group of 4-5 very good squads. This year, however, we’re looking at about a half-dozen teams that could legitimately challenge South Carolina and win this thing. Between Paige Bueckers, JuJu Watkins, Hannah Hidalgo, and Lauren Betts, this tournament will have star power to spare – nothing quite like the Caitlin Clark phenomenon, but a wonderful variety of stellar players with different skill sets.
