My standard job is to write down about NFL soccer when it comes to possibilities. However as we speak is my annual departure from that, as we’re specializing in our single simulation of the 2024 NFL season. Pure outcomes, whole certainty.
To type its projections of the season, ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) simulates the total slate of video games 20,000 instances. However on this train, we picked out solely a type of simulations to characterize a single attainable situation for a way issues might unfold. In spite of everything, life is a single sim. And as we speak, that is FPI simulation No. 515.
Listed here are the foremost storylines from that one simulation, together with shock playoff groups, draft order drama, tight division races and a Tremendous Bowl champion. We utilized somewhat inventive license to the main points, however the outcomes are all straight from the numbers. Let’s dive into simulation No. 515.
See FPI’s full projections of the season
The Payments and Falcons fall flat
It turned out the Buffalo Payments wanted a No. 1 receiver in spite of everything. Beneath offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo took a extra run-heavy method on this season simulation, however it resulted within the offense taking a step again and quarterback Josh Allen having his worst statistical season because the early components of his profession. The protection could not make up the hole, both, leading to a disastrous 7-10 playoff-less season for a staff that was thought of a Tremendous Bowl contender getting into the season.
The Atlanta Falcons’ all-in (properly, all-in-ish) guess on the 2024 season went south early, as they opened the season 2-4. Kirk Cousins struggled in his age-36 season whereas coming back from an Achilles damage, and the offense stumbled laborious. Atlanta managed a 6-11 document regardless of being in a weak NFC South. This season did have one shiny spot for Atlanta, although, because it served as a cleaner handoff than anticipated to the Michael Penix Jr. period.
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Williams leads the Bears to the postseason
The “Laborious Knocks” hype was actual — rookie quarterback Caleb Williams instantly introduced electrical energy to the Chicago Bears’ offense. Williams completed this season as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and extensive receiver DJ Moore exceeded 1,300 receiving yards, serving to make up for a protection that could not carry over the momentum it needed to finish the 2023 season. This resulted in high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs that not solely added to Williams’ lore but in addition generated a 10-7 document that allowed Chicago to sneak into the playoffs because the No. 7 seed within the NFC.
The Bears weren’t a one-and-done staff, both. They upset the No. 2-seeded Philadelphia Eagles 23-17 within the wild-card spherical. Certain, the staff misplaced to the Detroit Lions 27-16 within the divisional spherical on this simulation, however Chicago took an ideal first step ahead to set the desk for 2025 and past. Williams is right here, and the Bears are again.
Eagles win the NFC East after a late-season surge
Getting into Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles sat at 6-6, two video games behind the Dallas Cowboys and unsure of a playoff berth. However in a whole distinction to 2023, Philadelphia discovered itself down the stretch, as Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio’s items lastly coalesced. The Eagles went on a five-game successful streak to finish the season. That included a vital 22-10 win in Week 17 by which their cross rush devastated quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing assault to grab the NFC East title away from Dallas through head-to-head tiebreaker.
However the momentum did not carry over into the postseason. Although they entered because the No. 2 seed, the Eagles noticed their season finish abruptly by the hands of Williams and the Bears, who pulled off a shocking upset. Dallas did not fare any higher, because the Cowboys misplaced in a playoff blowout for the second straight season, falling 37-14 to the San Francisco 49ers.
Sim playoff race check-in: Information by means of Week 16
RecordAFCNFC12-3Chiefs11-4Jets, RavensLions10-5BengalsCowboys, 49ers9-6Eagles, Packers,Bears, Seahawks8-7Dolphins, Texans,JaguarsBuccaneers7-8Steelers, Colts,Chargers, Broncos,RaidersRams6-9BillsSaints, Falcons,Cardinals5-10Browns, TitansGiants4-11PatriotsCommanders, Panthers,Vikings
The Bengals seize the AFC North from the Ravens
Recent off Lamar Jackson’s MVP marketing campaign in 2023, the Baltimore Ravens appeared to be the category of a powerful AFC North getting into 2024. However Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow reminded the NFL why he is thought of one of many league’s greatest quarterbacks.
Burrow led a voracious passing assault that noticed extensive receiver Ja’Marr Chase surpass 1,500 yards and Tee Higgins add one other 1,100. Burrow completed within the prime 5 in QBR for the primary time, and the Bengals took the division at 11-6 on a tiebreaker over Baltimore through a greater division document (they cut up their head-to-head matchups).
Every staff obtained a playoff win, too, with the Bengals taking good care of the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-19 within the wild-card spherical, whereas the Ravens went on the street to defeat the damaging Houston Texans 27-24. However a 3rd assembly between the 2 AFC North rivals was not within the playing cards, as they have been each vanquished within the divisional spherical on this simulation.
The Bucs do it once more
There was a sense that the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a mirage, as they barely received the NFC South with a 9-8 document after which misplaced offensive coordinator Dave Canales (who had resuscitated quarterback Baker Mayfield’s profession) within the offseason. However Mayfield maintained his sturdy play, ending within the prime half of the league in QBR and supporting one more 1,000-yard season from extensive receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs ran away with the division at 10-7, with the New Orleans Saints because the next-closest staff at 7-10.
It did not finish there, because the Buccaneers pulled off a 26-20 residence upset over the Inexperienced Bay Packers to advance to the divisional spherical for the second straight season. They ended up falling to the 49ers 30-16, however 2024 confirmed that the success of the Bucs’ present core has been no fluke.
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Why McAfee thinks the Buccaneers may be ‘superior’ in NFC South
Pat McAfee seems on the NFL division odds this season and factors out how the Buccaneers can stand out within the NFC South.
The Vikings stumble to the No. 1 total decide
There was hope, again within the halcyon days of September, that quarterback Sam Darnold would lastly determine it out after spending the 2023 season with Kyle Shanahan earlier than taking part in in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme in 2024. How naïve we have been. Darnold didn’t, the truth is, determine it out. The Minnesota Vikings’ offense crumbled whereas the remainder of the league got here up with changes to defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ relentless blitzes.
The outcome? A paltry four-win season. However with the dropping got here hope within the type of the No. 1 total decide. With their quarterback already in hand — J.J. McCarthy is the QB of the long run right here, regardless of his proper meniscus tear — the Vikings enter the offseason in place to deal the No. 1 decide to a QB-needy staff for a sequence of choices that can bolster the roster for a direct turnaround. The current is bleak in Minnesota, however the future is shiny.
The Washington Commanders — who additionally will not be within the quarterback market — have the No. 2 decide. The Carolina Panthers, who is likely to be prepared to maneuver on from quarterback Bryce Younger after ending 5-12, have the No. 3 choice and are a contender to commerce as much as the No. 1 spot.
Rodgers and powerful protection lead the Jets to the AFC Championship Recreation
The brilliant future that the New York Jets imagined, with Aaron Rodgers carrying inexperienced and white and beginning in a playoff recreation at MetLife Stadium? Sure, it occurred right here — twice.
The indicators have been sturdy proper from the start. After dropping a detailed recreation to the 49ers in Week 1 on “Monday Evening Soccer,” the Jets rattled off 4 consecutive victories. Whereas Rodgers did not rise to an MVP degree, he performed properly, ending within the prime eight of QBR. But it surely was the league’s greatest protection that drove the Jets’ success. Cornerback Sauce Gardner shut down opposing wideouts en path to successful Defensive Participant of the 12 months, and defensive deal with Quinnen Williams disrupted each opponent’s offensive line. Due to their sturdy play — and aided by Buffalo’s collapse — the Jets received the AFC East with ease at 12-5, with the Miami Dolphins ending second at 9-8.
Because the No. 2 seed, the Jets dispatched the Dolphins 23-14 within the wild-card spherical, then stifled the Burrow-led Bengals with a dominating 27-9 victory within the divisional playoffs. That put Jets within the AFC Championship Recreation!
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Greeny satisfied the Jets are the most important risk to the Chiefs
Jeff Darlington is shocked by Mike Greenberg’s suggestion that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are the most important risk to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs within the AFC.
This obtained the usually despondent Jets fan base to start believing that this might … be … the … 12 months. Till the staff met Patrick Mahomes within the convention title recreation. Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs silenced the Jets, with the Kansas Metropolis passing assault overwhelming New York’s top-ranked protection. The Jets fell 31-23, and the Chiefs returned to the Tremendous Bowl in the hunt for a historic three-peat.
The 49ers fail to achieve the Tremendous Bowl
The 49ers have been cruising for a lot of the season, getting into the ultimate stretch with a 10-3 document. However they slumped at that time, dropping 4 in a row to make the NFC West race attention-grabbing. Ultimately, the 49ers did sufficient to make the playoffs at 10-7, successful the division by one recreation over the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, however it was touch-and-go up till the tip.
However the Niners rediscovered their type within the playoffs and have been hitting on all cylinders, demolishing the Cowboys within the wild-card spherical and taking good care of the Buccaneers within the divisional playoffs. This arrange a rematch with the Detroit Lions within the NFC Championship Recreation.
However this time, the Lions have been at residence and able to take benefit. Detroit’s improved protection compelled a Brock Purdy interception on the opening drive, and whereas the 49ers fought again, the Lions held them at arm’s size the remainder of the sport to prevail 30-24 and attain their first Tremendous Bowl.
Full standings and playoff outcomes
Listed here are the ultimate regular-season standings based mostly on our one simulation, with three NFC North groups ending with double-digit wins and reaching the playoffs.
Ultimate simulation regular-season standings
AFCNFCEastWLTEastWLTJets*1250Eagles*1160Dolphins#980Cowboys#1160Bills7100Giants6110Patriots5120Commanders5120NorthWLTNorthWLTBengals*1160Lions*1340Ravens#1160Packers#1160Steelers890Bears#1070Browns6110Vikings4130SouthWLTSouthWLTTexans*1070Buccaneers*1070Jaguars#1070Saints7100Colts7100Falcons6110Titans5120Panthers5120WestWLTWestWLTChiefs*134049ers*1070Chargers980Rams980Broncos890Seahawks980Raiders7100Cardinals7100* – received division# – certified for playoffs
And right here is how the primary three rounds of the postseason performed out earlier than the Tremendous Bowl.
Wild-card spherical:
(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 7 Dolphins 23-14(AFC) No. 3 Bengals defeated No. 6 Jaguars 23-19(AFC) No. 5 Ravens defeated No. 4 Texans 27-24(NFC) No. 7 Bears defeated No. 2 Eagles 23-17(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 6 Cowboys 37-14(NFC) No. 4 Buccaneers defeated No. 5 Packers 26-20
Divisional spherical:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 5 Ravens 27-24(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 3 Bengals 27-9(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 7 Bears 27-16(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 4 Buccaneers 30-16
Convention championships:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 1 Jets 31-23(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 3 49ers 30-24
The Lions beat the Chiefs to win Tremendous Bowl LIX
After dropping within the NFC Championship Recreation final season, Lions coach Dan Campbell stated, “Look, I advised these guys, this may occasionally have been our solely shot. Do I believe that? No. Do I consider that? No. Nevertheless, I understand how laborious it’s to get right here. I am well-aware. It’ll be twice as laborious to get again up to now subsequent 12 months than it was this 12 months.”
Twice as laborious or not, Campbell and the Lions did it. Quarterback Jared Goff proved he was “adequate for f—ing Detroit,” persevering with the relentless effectivity that he confirmed in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system in 2023 by ending within the prime three in QBR. Cornerback Carlton Davis III bounced again to be a essential a part of the Lions’ secondary, and defensive finish Aidan Hutchinson took one other step towards stardom, recording 14 sacks and forcing 4 fumbles.
The mix led the Lions to 13 wins and the highest seed within the NFC. Detroit took care of upstart Chicago within the divisional spherical earlier than settling the rating within the NFC title recreation with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Tremendous Bowl LIX.
However the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat stood within the Lions’ means. The additions of extensive receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown remodeled the Chiefs’ offense into what it had been earlier in Mahomes’ profession, with the speedy wideouts permitting Mahomes to throw downfield. Kansas Metropolis additionally received 13 video games and earned a No. 1 seed. And although Baltimore gave them hassle, the Chiefs obtained previous the Ravens 27-24 within the divisional spherical earlier than their offense bested the Jets’ unbelievable protection within the AFC Championship Recreation. The three-peat — the one which Mahomes began speaking about nearly instantly after successful the Tremendous Bowl final season — was proper there, as Kansas Metropolis turned the primary back-to-back champion to get to the Tremendous Bowl the next season.
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Stephen A. curious whether or not Lions can dwell as much as lofty expectations
Stephen A. Smith picks the Lions to win the NFC North however questions whether or not the staff can win a Tremendous Bowl.
Tremendous Bowl LIX was an offensive showcase. The Chiefs’ offense had early management and staked Kansas Metropolis to a 28-14 lead halfway by means of the fourth quarter. However regardless that cornerback Trent McDuffie held Lions star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in examine, operating again Jahmyr Gibbs recorded 80 yards and two touchdowns receiving.
After the second of Gibbs’ touchdowns minimize Kansas Metropolis’s result in eight factors, Campbell went for 2 and transformed, chopping the deficit to 6. That arrange the sport’s unlikely hero; extensive receiver Kalif Raymond scored on an 8-yard landing cross from Goff with three minutes left to play, giving the Lions a 29-28 lead.
For as soon as, the storybook end did not materialize for Mahomes. After a fast first down, the Chiefs discovered themselves with a fourth-and-10 on their very own 39-yard line. Mahomes fired a cross to receiver Rashee Rice, however Detroit security Brian Department swatted it away, permitting the Lions to kneel out the clock for a 29-28 victory and giving the franchise its first NFL title since 1957.
ESPN senior sports activities analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this simulation story.
