It’s time for PewterReport.com’s 2-Level Conversion post-game column, which options two statements, two questions and two predictions based mostly on the most recent Bucs recreation. Tampa Bay misplaced its fourth straight recreation, 23-20 towards San Francisco on a last-second subject purpose. The Bucs have now misplaced 5 of their final six and are 1-5 after a 3-1 begin to the season.
Can the 4-6 Bucs get wholesome and regroup after the bye week to make a late-season playoff push? Scott Reynolds shares his perception about Tampa Bay’s possibilities in 2-Level Conversion.
2 BIG STATEMENTS
STATEMENT 1. Bucs Protection Lacks Killer Intuition
In three of Tampa Bay’s final 5 losses, the Bucs protection has been on the sector needing to get a sack, a cease, drive a punt or a get a takeaway. As an alternative, the Bucs protection has surrendered game-winning touchdowns on the preliminary drives in extra time losses at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis, and Todd Bowles’ unit allowed a game-winning subject purpose drive with lower than a minute left in a 23-20 loss to San Francisco.
Bucs CB Josh Hayes and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
The killer intuition that the Bucs protection briefly confirmed this season in a 20-16 win at Detroit has disappeared for some motive. And if the workforce has any hope of constructing a playoff run after the bye week, Todd Bowles’ troops might want to discover it.
“The ultimate drive we’re simply not ending,” Bucs outdoors linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka mentioned. “We’re simply enjoying three-and-a-half quarters. We’ve obtained to complete conditions. It’s horrible. It hurts quite a bit. You battle, you claw, you scratch and also you come up quick, however that’s the NFL. Lots of one-possession video games and it finally comes right down to you getting off the sector on the finish of the sport. Profitable and dropping is situational soccer, it’s not what we’re excelling at proper now.”
It’s not simply the truth that the Tampa Bay protection has surrendered 550 yards (at Atlanta), 508 yards (versus Baltimore), 394 yards (versus Atlanta), 384 yards (at Kansas Metropolis) and 413 yards (versus San Francisco) within the final 5 defeats. Or that the Bucs protection has allowed 36, 41, 31, 30 and 23 factors in these final 5 losses. It’s the truth that Todd Bowles’ troops can’t drive stops once they completely have to.
Tampa Bay solely compelled one punt on Sunday, and during the last 5 losses, the protection has solely compelled a mean of two.2 punts per recreation. Throughout the workforce’s four-game dropping streak, the Bucs protection has solely compelled two takeaways – Sunday’s fumble restoration versus the 49ers got here on particular groups – whereas turning over the ball 5 instances.
Bucs DT Vita Vea and 49ers QB Brock Purdy – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Understand that 49ers kicker Jake Moody missed three subject targets. Add 9 potential factors to San Francisco’s precise level whole and the 49ers ought to have had 32 factors towards Tampa Bay’s protection, which might’ve been par for the course, because the Bucs had beforehand allowed 30 factors or extra in 4 straight losses towards the Falcons (twice), the Ravens and the Chiefs.
The Bucs have performed laborious on protection and never given up. However enjoying laborious hasn’t been sufficient to get the job performed throughout one other 1-5 stretch following a 3-1 begin for the second yr in a row, in keeping with linebacker Lavonte David.
“We performed our tails off – by no means take that away from us, we’ll all the time play laborious,” David mentioned. “We’ve obtained that half down, however we simply should execute higher, play sensible soccer, and play nasty soccer, play sensible, aggressive soccer [and] make performs. We’re not making sufficient performs – all people, myself included – we’re not making sufficient performs. That’s all it comes right down to. Now we have to make performs when the time comes right down to it, and for us to be a terrific protection, we’ve got to do this. That’s the place we’re digging ourselves in a gap at – we’ve got to make performs.”
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles mentioned that the protection has to play smarter soccer on the finish of video games.
“[We] have to complete ballgames,” Bowles mentioned. “[When] guys get an opportunity to play, they’ve to come back in, play and execute. We are able to’t play laborious after which not play sensible on the finish. Now we have to play smarter soccer. There’s nothing unsuitable with how laborious we’re enjoying and the way robust we’re enjoying, however we’ve got to complete video games. Now we have to discover a solution to end ballgames. [We’re] making too many errors on the finish.”
But it’s not nearly enjoying sensible and enjoying laborious. Ending video games requires a sure do-or-die mentality. Getting off the sector as a substitute of giving up game-winning scores must be non-negotiable.
Whether or not it’s Bowles’ penchant for taking part in tender zone protection on the finish of some video games that has sadly translated right into a tender mentality by the gamers or the Bucs simply not having their playmakers present up, it’s a mindset that the Bucs simply don’t have proper now.
“Simply look ourselves within the mirror, and ask your self what sort of participant you need to be,” David mentioned. “This workforce wants these – we’d like elite gamers on the finish of the day. We’d like gamers who make performs and do it constantly and that’s what we’re not doing, particularly on the defensive facet of the ball. Whoever’s on the market, we’re not making sufficient performs, and we’ve got to be higher at that.
Bucs ILB Lavonte David and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
“It feels shitty. It’s all the time in our palms. As a defensive captain of this soccer workforce, I’m on the market, I’m not doing sufficient. All people just isn’t doing sufficient, so no matter it’s, we’ve got to dig deep and discover it. No matter it’s, we’ve got to repair it ASAP.”
The Bucs gained’t win one other recreation this season till the protection dramatically improves and learns not solely tips on how to end – however tips on how to end off their opponents by growing a killer intuition. However that’s going to take all 11 Tampa Bay defenders on the sector adopting an “I’ll make the play” mindset.
“Now we have to have that degree of focus and depth going into that final drive to finally win the sport,” Tryon-Shoyinka mentioned. “Now we have to have a variety of grit in our thoughts and ending and enjoying task soccer. … Now we have to point out our ass when we’ve got that chance.”
STATEMENT 2. Bucs WR Depth Was Not What The Staff Hoped It Was
Bucs WR Trey Palmer – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay’s broad receiving corps was the envy of the league when Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had been wholesome. No different receiving duo within the NFL has had a pair of receivers each have 1,000-yard seasons in every of the final three years like Evans and Godwin have performed in Tampa Bay. With Evans and Godwin drawing the most effective defensive backs every week, it has allowed the workforce’s revolving door at WR3 – whether or not it’s been Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer or Sterling Shepard – to play a job versus a lesser cornerback in protection.
However with out Evans and Godwin, the shortage of proficient depth on the Bucs’ roster has been uncovered. Neither the return of Rakim Jarrett nor the elevation of observe squad receivers Ryan Miller and Marquez Callaway have performed a lot to select up the slack as Evans and Godwin have missed the final three video games.
The workforce had excessive expectations for McMillan, a third-round decide, however he missed the Chiefs recreation attributable to a sore hamstring, feeling like he couldn’t play on it after warm-ups prior the beginning of the Monday Night time Soccer recreation. Then McMillan missed two practices in the course of the week and was restricted on Friday. Regardless of maintaining him off the inactive checklist on Sunday in case he felt like he may play towards the 49ers, McMillan apparently determined he couldn’t go.
But it’s not simply McMillan, who has been a giant disappointment this yr. It’s additionally been Shepard, a 30-year previous veteran, and Palmer, who was WR3 final yr.
With video games towards the Falcons, Chiefs and 49ers within the books, right here is the cumulative receiving whole for the Bucs receivers over the previous three weeks.
WR Rakim Jarrett – 117 snaps, 6 catches for 77 yards (12.8 avg.)WR Sterling Shepard – 122 snaps, 8 catches for 73 yards (9.1 avg.)WR Trey Palmer – 93 snaps, 4 catches for 62 yards (15.5 avg.)WR Jalen McMillan – 59 snaps, 4 catches for 35 yards (8.8 avg.)WR Ryan Miller – 116 snaps, 5 catches for 31 yards (6.1 avg.), TDWR Maquez Callaway – 5 snaps, no catches
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Over the previous three video games, the Bucs broad receivers have collectively caught 27 passes for 278 yards and one landing. That’s a mean of 9 receptions for 92.6 yards per recreation from all the broad receiving corps.
To say that the Bucs can’t wait to get Evans again after the bye week is a large understatement.
Lots of these younger receivers are merely blowing their alternative to take advantage of the additional reps they’ve acquired within the absence of Godwin, Evans and even McMillan, who has missed the final two video games. With Evans turning 32 subsequent August and coming into a contract yr, and Godwin hitting free company in March at age 29, the Bucs have overestimated their reserve expertise on the receiver place and might want to proceed to make use of draft capital on receivers to offer Mayfield higher weapons in 2025.
And Tampa Bay must hope that McMillan is simply having a tough rookie yr and that he’s not a bust.
2 PROBING QUESTIONS
QUESTION 1. Will The Bucs Fireplace Todd Bowles Throughout The Bye Week?
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
I’m not asking – or answering – this query about Todd Bowles’ job safety simply to place it on the market for public dialogue. This subject is already on the market for dialogue amongst Bucs followers. We see it within the feedback on our Pewter Report X and Fb social media channels and in our Pewter Report Podcast chatroom as nicely.
The Glazers have by no means fired a head coach in the course of the season earlier than. Not even Raheem Morris was fired within the midst of the 2011 season when his workforce was in free-fall after a 4-1 begin, dropping the ultimate 11 video games which culminated in a 4-12 document. So I don’t count on the Glazers to take action now, particularly with the Bucs nonetheless within the working for a playoff spot with a 4-6 document and just one opponent – the 6-3 Chargers – with a successful document on the schedule after the bye week.
Given the truth that Bowles helped this workforce win a Tremendous Bowl in 2020, and gained back-to-back NFC South titles plus a house playoff win, that provides him the good thing about the doubt to let this season play out. Particularly since Bowles proved that he may dig the workforce out of a 4-7 gap final yr and nonetheless win the division in Week 18.
I do know most Bucs followers assume that offensive coordinator Liam Coen may be in line to interchange Bowles in case the Glazers do fireplace him and need to transfer in a distinct course after the season. However saddling Coen with an interim head teaching job in-season below this state of affairs whereas juggling game-planning for an injured offense, and selling Larry Foote to defensive play-caller isn’t the reply.
It wouldn’t be honest for Coen to be an interim head coach this yr and tackle extra losses this season after which take over in a full capability subsequent yr. Coen – or any coach in his place – needs to be given the complete good thing about a honeymoon interval and the possibility to select his personal defensive employees earlier than getting any wins or losses on his document.
We’ll see how this season performs out. Sure, Bowles is on the new seat. Sure, the group likes what it has seen from Coen’s offense to date. No, I don’t count on a head teaching change at this juncture in the course of the bye week.
QUESTION 2. Is There Hope On The Horizon In Tampa Bay?
Bucs assistant GM John Spytek and GM Jason Licht – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Sure, not solely are there extra wins available this season, but in addition in years to come back. The Bucs have been ravaged by a loopy quantity of accidents this yr, which has immediately led to some losses. However whether or not Tampa Bay makes the playoffs in 2024 or not, the longer term does look brilliant for the workforce transferring ahead.
Tampa Bay’s largest margin of defeat truly got here in a 26-7 loss to Denver in Week 3. In any other case the Bucs have misplaced extra time video games at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis, in addition to a 10-point loss to the Ravens, a five-point loss to the Falcons and a three-point loss to the 49ers. The collective document of the groups the Bucs have misplaced to is 32-16.
Throw in the truth that the Bucs have additionally overwhelmed the 8-1 Lions, the 7-2 Eagles and the 7-3 Commanders earlier within the season when the workforce was more healthy and that’s proof that Tampa Bay has sufficient expertise to win. The workforce simply must get higher teaching on protection and higher recreation administration from the pinnacle coach to succeed in its full potential.
So long as the freakish accidents are contained to the 2024 season, there’s no motive why the Bucs can’t be sturdy contenders for the NFC South title once more in 2025, particularly with the proper strikes in free company and one other good draft.
2 BOLD PREDICTIONS
PREDICTION 1. Tampa Bay Gained’t Make The Playoffs – Due To Accidents
Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
For no matter motive, the Bucs had been one of many healthiest groups within the league final yr. On offense for instance, each Bucs starter starter performed all 19 video games, together with the 2 postseason video games, aside from left guard Matt Feiler. That’s an unbelievable rarity that actually benefited Tampa Bay en path to 9 wins and a 3rd straight NFC South division title. However since Week 1 when the workforce misplaced proper sort out Luke Goedeke and All-Professional free security Antoine Winfield Jr. for 4 video games attributable to a concussion and a foot damage, respectively, the Bucs have had a weekly onslaught of accidents.
Since Week 2, Tampa Bay has seen no less than two main starters miss a recreation attributable to damage – and generally that quantity has swelled as excessive as three or 4. On Sunday towards the 49ers for instance, the Bucs had been with out beginning broad receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and beginning secondary members Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith. Then the workforce misplaced left sort out Tristan Wirfs to a knee damage versus San Francisco – an MCL sprain, which can price him about 4 weeks – and star cornerback Zyon McCollum needed to go away the sport within the fourth quarter attributable to tweaking his hamstring.
So even when the workforce has a positive stretch of video games arising after they bye towards a slew of groups with dropping information, will the Bucs even have sufficient wholesome stars out there to capitalize? The Bucs have but to seek out an insect repellent for the damage bug that simply retains biting this workforce on a weekly foundation. I’ve little question that if the Bucs had been at full energy – or nearer to it – that Tampa Bay’s document could be higher than it’s proper now.
And extra importantly, there could be sufficient wins to make the postseason – whilst a Wild Card. Until the accidents in Tampa Bay simply immediately cease, the trail to the postseason might be a really perilous one for the Buccaneers.
PREDICTION 2. Bucs Will Not Have A 1,000-Yard Rusher Or Receiver This 12 months
Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photograph by: USA At present
The final time the Bucs didn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver in any season was again in 2011. Operating again LeGarrett Blount rushed for 781 yards and broad receiver Mike Williams had 771 yards receiving as Tampa Bay went 4-12. The distinction was that the Bucs offense ranked nineteenth within the league, averaging 17.9 yards per recreation.
This yr’s Bucs workforce could not have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver, however Liam Coen’s offense is averaging 361.5 yards per recreation, which ranks eighth within the league, through the use of extra of an ensemble solid – primarily attributable to accidents to the workforce’s main weapons, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With 576 yards receiving, Godwin was actually on tempo to hit 1,000 yards receiving earlier than his season-ending ankle damage.
Evans has 335 yards and has averaged 48 yards per recreation previous to a hamstring damage that price him the final three video games. He would want to common 95 yards per recreation over the subsequent seven video games to hit 1,000 yards. However Evans’ profession common is simply 74.6 yards per recreation over his 10 and a half yr profession in Tampa Bay. When Evans returns to motion, he’ll even be a marked man and may draw double groups, which can make it even tougher to common 95 yards per recreation.
The Bucs are working the ball higher than they’ve in latest reminiscence, but it surely’s been by committee. Bucky Irving leads Tampa Bay with 492 yards, averaging 49.2 yards per recreation. He’s on tempo to hit 836 yards. Irving hasn’t even had a 100-yard recreation this season. In actual fact, the Bucs have solely had one rusher hit 100 yards in a recreation and that was Sean Tucker, who had 136 yards dashing and a landing at New Orleans in Week 6.
